When the Illini enter Mackey Arena in West Lafayette to take on the #3 Purdue Boilermakers on Tuesday night, the expectation is for a hard-fought battle between two of the best teams in the Big Ten. Purdue and Illinois are two of the best teams in the country. The rankings reflect as such. But in the eyes of Illinois and Big Ten fans alike, it’s somewhat obvious the orange and blue sit on a path to a #2 seed in March.
Brad Underwood’s work to propel the Illini to a #1 seed in the tournament last season felt overshadowed with the early exit at the hands of the Loyola Ramblers on the first weekend. Losing Ayo Dosunmu to the NBA Draft and Adam Frazier to the transfer portal were certainly significant blows to a program on the rise. An inevitable sense of regression lingered throughout the offseason. Following a season in which Illinois won the Big Ten Tournament and secured a #1 seed for March Madness, the national respect hadn’t disappeared. The Illini opened the season ranked #11, but a rocky start with close action and unexpected losses to significantly inferior opponents caused Illinois to lose favor with the AP.
Things clicked for Illinois once Kofi Cockburn got up to speed following a brief three-game suspension to open the season. But in what would become a recurring theme, Andre Curbelo missed close to two months recovering from a concussion sustained before Thanksgiving in a victorious effort against Kansas State. The Illini played tough, their defense leading the charge, gutting out six consecutive wins to open conference play. Illinois re-entered the top 25 the second week of January, perched atop the final spot. Heading into their first Big Ten matchup against a ranked opponent, the Illini climbed to #17.
The Return
Curbelo returned for the first battle with the Boilermakers, this time in Champaign on Martin Luther King Jr. Day; a game that required two overtime periods before the Illini fell, 96-88. Cockburn’s foul trouble limited the powerful center’s effectiveness, but allowed for Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk to grow up on the fly against Purdue’s behemoth big man, Zach Edey.
Illinois minus Cockburn blew an opportunity to rebound against Maryland the following Friday as an untimely scoring drought led to the an upset for the Terrapins. Curbelo entered health and safety protocols shortly thereafter, disqualifying him from the final two contests of the month.
Cockburn, who received a stray elbow courtesy of Edey, entered concussion protocol, leaving the orange and blue without its dynamic facilitator and its dominating scoring force. Hosting #10 Michigan State without two exceptional players – including a likely NPOY candidate – presented a daunting challenge. Trent Frazier and the Illini defense kept Sparty in check, and a nifty scoring touch from Frazier and Alfonso Plummer propelled Illinois to the unlikely upset.
The Return II: Electric Boogaloo
Cockburn returned the following contest against Northwestern. The shifty guard made his second return of the season against #11 Wisconsin. Illinois had reached #18 in the latest poll, and while ultimately favored by seven points at home, nobody quite expected the trouncing served up by Cockburn. Kofi led all scorers with a whopping 37 points on 16/19 shooting. “Noticeable” doesn’t begin to properly describe Illinois’ size advantage in the post, and Cockburn and the Illini wisely took advantage at every turn. Illinois improved an already impressive record with a thirteen-point victory, 80-67.
Illinois traveled to Bloomington on Saturday afternoon for a highly anticipated match with the Hoosiers, and while the Illini trailed at half time, a lights out second half performance from Trent Frazier on both ends of the court drove home a seventeen-point win in enemy territory. Frazier posted 23 points on 8/11 shooting, and his defensive efforts led the way to an impressive comeback that included the best half of Illinois basketball to this point in the season.
Controlling Destiny
Now the Illini sit in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten. It’s certainly not an easy path, but atop the Big Ten standings on February 7th is no small feat. Eight games in one month is all that remains between the Illini and a Big Ten regular season title. Attainable? Absolutely. But the road goes through West Lafayette. There’s certainly opportunity for revenge, and the Illini are fresh off of the best half of ball this season. But is it enough to take down the third best team in the country? It depends on five factors:
- How can you neutralize Jaden Ivey?
- Can Kofi stay out of foul trouble against Zach Edey?
- Can Curbelo play smart, sensible ball for twenty minutes?
- Is Trent Frazier ready to defend the intense ball screens?
- And if all four of those things go right, is Sasha Stefanovic not going to miss like January 17th in Champaign?
Hitting Stride
If Illinois pulls off the unlikely outcome on Tuesday night, it’s all but guaranteed it joins the top ten next Monday for the first time this season. Even a close loss likely doesn’t severely impact the Illini’s trajectory. But what’s important in the long term for Brad Underwood and the Illini is the ability to stay healthy and grow as a cohesive unit into March. It’s the home stretch. Four more games on the road. Four more at State Farm.
Coming off of the best half in 2021-22 and playing strong in West Lafayette provides the perfect springboard for the Illini to grasp a firm hold on the Big Ten. Trent Frazier is one of the best defenders in college. Andre Curbelo facilitates unlike anybody else, and he’s on the bench right now. Alfonso Plummer is a dangerous scoring threat with any space beyond the arc. And Kofi Cockburn is Kofi Cockburn. Nobody imposes their will at this stage quite like #21 in orange and blue.
When firing on all cylinders, a path of which the Illini are currently trending, watch out — this Illinois team is destined for the second weekend and beyond this March.
