Entering the 2021 MLB season, the Yankees were one of the favorites to win the World Series. The PECOTA projections also expected the Bombers to finish with the best record in the American League. However, the Yankees of April 2021 are not the Yankees that many expected to see.
A Rocky Start
After 12 games, the Yankees currently sit at 5-7. They are tied for last place in the AL East, 4 games behind the first-place Red Sox. So far, it seems like nothing is working for the team.
The Yankees didn’t score in the first inning until their 12th game, the last team in baseball to do so. Entering Wednesday’s game, their team OPS was the lowest it’s been through 11 games since 1989. The team’s slugging percentage was also the lowest it’s been through that span since 1991.
The Yanks are second in the league in double plays (grounded into, not turned) with 15. They’re currently 20th out of 30 teams in OPS, and their average of 4 runs per game ranks 22nd in the league. Simply put, they aren’t hitting the ball.
The team’s struggles haven’t been exclusive to just the offense, however.
Gerrit Cole has naturally been dominating so far. However, the rest of the Yankee rotation hasn’t been as lucky. The other 4 starters (Kluber, Taillon, Montgomery, and Germán) have combined for a 6.06 ERA. Kluber hasn’t exceeded 4 innings yet in a start, making it the first time in his career that he’s thrown three consecutive starts of 4 innings or less.
The bullpen has been essentially the team’s only bright spot so far. Chad Green, Aroldis Chapman, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa, Darren O’Day, and Justin Wilson have combined to throw 34 and 2/3 innings, allowing just 2 runs for an ERA of 0.52. However, this has mostly been negated by the struggles of the rotation.
So, it’s no secret that things aren’t going well for the Yankees. But what exactly is the appropriate reaction at this point, 12 games in? Should Yankee fans be concerned?
NY Yankees: Time to Worry?
The answer, essentially, is yes.
The Yankees boast one of the best lineups in baseball, with several of the most talented hitters in the league. Yet, they haven’t been hitting like that.
Aaron Judge has 4 homers in 10 games, and an OPS+ of 184. D.J. LeMahieu has an OPS+ of 144, and Gary Sanchez has rebounded nicely, with a 143 figure to start the year. But the team hasn’t been seeing much production from the rest of the lineup.
The league-average OPS+ is 100. The only other Yankee hitter with a mark above that is Brett Gardner, who has only seen 21 at-bats. Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton have both gotten off to dreadful starts, with Stanton slugging just .508 and Hicks recording a .273 OBP.
Okay, okay, you get the point. They haven’t been hitting. The starting pitchers haven’t been good either. This is good reason for fans to be concerned.
So, yes, it’s very reasonable for Yankee fans to be worried a bit. But is it reasonable for Yankee fans to panic?
NY Yankees: Time to Panic?
Not quite.
Let’s be real, for a second. Yes, many hitters are struggling. But do fans honestly expect them to hit like this all year? Knowing Yankee fans, I’m sure some of them do expect that, but it’s very unlikely.
With the same core of players, the Yankees ranked 4th in runs per game in 2020, 1st in 2019, 2nd in 2018, and 2nd in 2017. That’s what this lineup is capable of, and a rough 12-game stretch doesn’t change that. Offensively, the team is simply too good to not figure it out eventually.
The starting rotation is obviously a bigger cause for worry, however. Sure, Kluber and Taillon have good track-records, but those records are also full of injuries. While fans shouldn’t expect them to combine for an ERA north of 6.00 all year, they definitely shouldn’t expect Cy Young-level Kluber to return, either.
But here’s the thing with that rotation: it doesn’t have to be great. Not yet, at least. With how well the bullpen is throwing, as long as the offense gets to the point that they’re capable of, the Yankees will still win a lot of games.
Looking Ahead
Fans shouldn’t forget that Luis Severino is supposed to return this summer, either. Severino has ace-type stuff, and has posted a 3.13 ERA (139 ERA+) since 2017.
Imagine this: a playoff rotation of Cole, Severino, Montgomery, and Kluber/Taillon. I’m giving Monty a role for now because he seems more likely, at this point, to be in a position to start playoff games compared to the other two.
However, if one of Kluber or Taillon can figure it out, then the Yankees suddenly have a very strong 4-man playoff rotation. Couple that with one of the best lineups in baseball, and likely the best bullpen, and that becomes a very tough team to beat.
My point being: this is a long season. There’s still 150 games left in the year. Yes, fans have every right to be concerned about the slow start, but there’s still no reason to think that this changes the long-term outlook for this Yankee team.