March is upon us, and while it’s cliché, the bracket is as wide open as ever. Football season is over, and the best cure for a Super Bowl hangover is in full swing. Conference tournaments mark only the beginning. This is March.
The Favorites:
Eight teams lead the field from the front, and while heavy favorites, nobody’s a shoe-in for New Orleans.
- Gonzaga (+380)
- Kentucky (+700)
- Arizona (+750)
- Purdue (+950)
- Kansas (+1200)
- Auburn (+1200)
- Duke (+1500)
- Baylor (+1800)
*odds by FanDuel Sportsbook
Auburn, Duke and Baylor, while occupying the bottom three spots of the top eight, don’t exactly meet the criteria for “long shot.” Injuries throughout the season prevented Duke and Baylor from reaching its ultimate ceiling. When healthy, which is possible before tournament play, both the Blue Devils and the defending champion Bears belong amongst the best of the best.
As for Purdue, defensive issues, especially against teams like Florida State and Iowa that play with height and length, pose the largest threat to an athletic Boilermakers squad. When the guards in West Lafayette receive heavy pressure, Matt Painter struggles.
But it’s Gonzaga, Kentucky and Arizona that steal the show. Kentucky has back-to-back wins without TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler, and John Calipari has the Wildcats ready for March. Tommy Lloyd’s turnaround of the Arizona Wildcats program following turmoil surrounding former coach Sean Miller is nothing short of extraordinary. Battling through the headlines and consequences of a high-profile departure, Arizona’s presence alone is impressive.
The Best of the Rest:
The squads listed below possess the innate ability to battle in March. However, it’s a tough road ahead, and without a perfect roster, getting to the second weekend is nothing near a guarantee.
- Villanova (+2000)
- Texas Tech (+2500)
- Houston (+4000)
- Alabama (+6000)
- Texas (+6000)
- Wisconsin (+10000)
Outside of the top eight, this is it. Yes, it’s possible for any team in the field to make a run, but the supreme difficulty to win a single-elimination tournament requires strength, health and luck. One of these teams is traveling to New Orleans. Is it Wisconsin? It depends on the success of Johnny Davis. Wisconsin isn’t big enough to compete with paint strength. Is it Villanova? Jay Wright’s reign atop the Big East is truly incredible, but the frighteningly scarce depth of the roster often makes the difference.
Alabama and Texas Tech sit on opposite ends of the basketball deficiency spectrum. Texas Tech’s greatest threat is itself. Self-sustained scoring droughts plague the Red Raiders. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide possess an equally difficult task in making crucial late-game stops.
Houston justifiably raises some eyebrows. The program battled key injuries throughout the season ultimately resulting in losses to Memphis and Southern Methodist. But Kelvin Sampson’s ability to keep the Cougars afloat is a testament to the strength of the current roster and future of the program.
Final Thoughts:
Each path to New Orleans is an unknown. The field itself is an unknown. But as the most exciting month in sports begins, the only certainty is the quality of the teams gunning for glory. Welcome to March; the journey, the glory and the prestige is upon us.
