It is that time of the year where everyone on NBA Twitter is going to make their opinion on any given player. If they suck, then they choke in the playoffs. They play well but don’t win a championship, then no one really cares. If they win the championship, then they will be met with hundreds of asterisks. It really brings this tweet to mind whenever I watch basketball.
Nevertheless, as someone who actually enjoys basketball, I am happy to look at each matchup and give my opinion on who will win each series.
First, I will look at an unlikely series matchup as the Hawks at the midway point looked to be having another disappointing season, and the Knicks who were undoubtedly the biggest story & surprise this season.
How The Knicks Got Here
The Knicks fired David Fizdale after an unspectacular 21-83 tenure in 1+ season(s) with the team. Surprisingly, this was met with criticism. Admittedly Fizdale was not set up for success as the team pushed all the chips in on an off-season where they pursued Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and tried to increase their odds of getting Zion Williamson. However, that failed miserably and they scattered to put an NBA-adjacent team together.
With all that being said, one could have easily made the point that Tom Thibodeau was not really set up for success either. They managed to dump a lot of the Power Forwards they signed, but their off-season was signing Austin Rivers (later traded), Nerlens Noel, and Alec Burks as well as drafting Obi Toppin and Immanuel Quickly. That was it. One can assume they only made the trade for Derrick Rose when they realized they had a shot at the playoffs. But the Knicks were not a favorite to make the playoffs by anybody.
They made the playoffs as any Tom Thibodeau team does and that is with a blue-collar play style. Slow pace, defense, and effort on both sides of the court. They’re still not an overly talented team, but they finally have a mindset and a culture that allows them to play greater than the sum of their parts. And I like those kinds of teams.
How The Knicks Win The Series
They win the series based on the things that I had just mentioned. I find this matchup intriguing is because the Hawks are also one of the slower-paced teams in the league. So, this will also fit the Hawks style of play. In addition to winning with defense and effort, the Knicks will have to play disciplined basketball. The Hawks are one of the best teams at getting to the free-throw line, as well as one most efficient teams at the free-throw line.
Normally I would pick an X-factor for this team, but there are too many to choose from. The Knicks will need something from everyone. Derrick Rose will need to play big off the bench. RJ Barrett will need to be able to handle some of the ball-handling duties to allow Randle to do work off-ball. Nerlens Noel will need to continue to be a solid rim-protector and get rebounds as he’s going against a strong front-court.
How The Hawks Got Here
For the second season in the row (at least through the midway point) I was really disappointed in the Hawks. They signed Danillo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic, which created a lot of expectations for the Hawks. Admittedly maybe I was too critical for their issues with consistency as those two, in particular, were struggling early with injuries. However, with the addition to Clint Capela (who they got the previous season but didn’t play until this year) to Trae Young, John Collins, as well as a young core that had some promise, it felt like the Hawks should’ve been better.
Hawks ownership agreed. They fired Lloyd Pierce near the midway point where the Hawks were 14-20. They made a spark when they traded Rajon Rondo for Lou Williams. While that in the grand scheme of things didn’t do much for them, as it was a gesture to Trae Young that this was his team and they needed him to lead the Hawks to the playoffs.
After taking a deep dive into this Hawks turnaround, there wasn’t much to say any single thing was the reason. They improved slightly in almost every category, but it wasn’t earth-shattering. The guys who played a lot before and after the Lloyd Pierce firing seemed to be playing around the same level. So the main reason for this turnaround? The aforementioned Bogdanovic and Gallinari signings. As mentioned, they both struggled early with injuries. However, once they got healthy their scoring volume and efficiency increased significantly.
Before Pierce Firing
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 9 games, 9.9 points per game, 38.5% FG%, 36.2% 3P%, 88.9% FT%
Danillo Gallinari: 22 games, 11.3 points per game, 39.0% FG%, 38.1% 3P, 93.1% FT%
After Pierce Firing
Bogdan Bogdanovic: 35 games, 18.0 points per game, 48.7% FG%, 45.5% 3P%, 91.4% FT%
Danillo Gallinari: 29 games, 14.7 points per game, 46.1% FG%, 42.3% 3P, 92.2% FT%
How The Hawks Win The Series
As mentioned, they play at a slow pace similar to the Knicks. However, they will be reliant on their offense to carry them home. Since Nate McMillan took over the Hawks are 8th in offensive rating, 10th in EFG%, and 6th in TS%.
The X-factors will once again be Bodgan Bogdanovic and Danillo Gallinari. As they were the main reason for the teams’ turnaround. Bogdanovic doing his work with the starers and trying to relieve pressure off of Young, while Gallinari will need to provide scoring off the bench.
Series Prediction
This is a coin toss. On paper, this should go to seven games. Both teams are riding in hot. The Hawks going 27-11 since March 2nd–3rd most wins since that date. The Knicks going 16-4 since April 7th–2nd most wins since that date. It will be a grudge match between a top offensive team going against a top defensive team.
I don’t feel particularly confident picking one of these teams. My best guess is whoever wins Game 5 will win the series–which I know I am stating the obvious as a copout but I don’t care.
Prediction: Hawks in 7
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