Liam

The order of the predictive power rankings doesn’t fully line up with the AP rankings that were released after the Conference Championship weekend.

Let’s look at a few of the matchups for the upcoming bowl games and put the experts college football picks to the test by using statistical analysis and along with some good ol’ fashioned gut feelers!

Let’s start with comparing the AP Top Ten with the Statistical Power Rankings Top 10:

  1. LSU Tigers
  2. Ohio State Buckeyes
  3. Clemson Tigers
  4. Oklahoma Sooners
  5. Georgia Bulldogs
  6. Florida Gators
  7. Oregon Ducks
  8. Baylor Bears
  9. Alabama Crimson Tide
  10. Auburn Tigers

Predictive Power Rankings Top 10

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes
  2. Clemson Tigers
  3. LSU Tigers
  4. Alabama Crimson Tide
  5. Wisconsin Badgers
  6. Georgia Bulldogs
  7. Penn State Nittany Lions
  8. Michigan Wolverines
  9. Auburn Tigers
  10. Florida Gators

Quite a different outlook, don’t you think? The predictive rankings have Oregon at No. 11, and Oklahoma back at No. 13. There are aspects of the predictive power rankings that I agree with, but Alabama is not the No. 4 team without Tua, no matter how you slice it. And Wisconsin is a stretch at No. 5, I think the committee got it right putting Georgia at No. 5. I think Oregon being outside the top ten is questionable, perhaps you could put Penn State above them, but not Michigan. 

Value on Taking Ohio State?

The early lines are listed with Clemson as two-point favorites over the Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl. I’m sorry Clemson fans… but no. I know the Tigers are defending champs but they just don’t have the same kind of grit that they had the last couple of years and they played a weak schedule. In short, Dabo’s team has gone soft. They nearly lost to the Tarheels at the midway point and yes, since then they have righted the ship, but against who? Who have they played? The ACC was weak-sauce this year, other than Virginia, who was a three-loss team heading into the conference title game, all other teams – not including Clemson– had at least four losses. WEAK. 

Clemson hasn’t met a team like Ohio State this year and they are going to get shell-shocked in the Fiesta Bowl when they collide with the Buckeyes. Sure the stats are similar, but the level of competition to garner those stats is on a whole different level between these two teams. 

Ohio State beat No. 8 Wisconsin, No. 10 Penn State, and No. 14 Michigan. Clemson only played one ranked team all season and Virginia was just barely in the Top 25 and no longer is. Five of Ohio State’s opponents are still ranked in the top 25. 

Stats, Stats, Stats

Offense:

  • Ohio State scores 48.69 points per game
  • Clemson Scores 46.54 points per game
  • Ohio State Passes for 258.77 yards per game
  • Clemson Passes for 294.77 yards per game
  • Ohio State Rushes for 272.85 yards per game
  • Clemson Rushes for 252.92 yards per game
  • Ohio State averages 7.03 yards per play
  • Clemson averages 7.5 yards per play

Defense:

  • Ohio State allows just 12.54 points per game
  • Clemson allows only 10.62 points per game
  • Ohio State lets 148.08 passing yards get by
  • Clemson lets just 138.54 passing yards slip past
  • Ohio State brick-walls the run game for just 99.54 yards per game
  • Clemson allows 106.15 rushing yards per game

So when we look at the stats it is very, very close. Ohio State is two-points better on offense, Clemson is two-points better on defense – hence the two-point spread. But again, who have the numbers come against? Would Clemson have racked up these kinds of numbers against Wisconsin,  Penn State, and Minnesota, etc? Doubtful. 

I love Ohio State as an underdog in this one. They have shown to be the more consistent team all year and coming into this one as dogs is going to make them play with a chip on their shoulder. Goodbye, Clemson. You’re already out of the playoffs; you just don’t know it yet. No repeat National Championship for You.