Week 16 is upon us and COVID continues to dominate the NFL’s headlines. It seems as though every day a new team is reported with an outbreak, and the timing couldn’t be worse. These December games mean a lot, and to see teams not be able to roll out their best lineups is a real shame for fans of the game everywhere.

This week does look a little better than last, and there are quite a few matchups and teams to look out for. Baltimore, Cincinnati, New England, and Buffalo all have huge matchups that could impact the trajectories of their seasons. I’ll also have my eye on Tampa Bay, Arizona and Tennessee, who slipped up last week and have some work to do to get back to where they were.

Last Week: 11-5 Straight Up, 10-6 ATS

Running Total: 147-75-1 Straight Up, 121-101 ATS

Thursday Night: 49ers (-3) at Titans

The 49ers are starting to put it all together. The defense is stifling opponents and the offense is putting the ball in the hands of its playmakers, all adding up to a potentially very scary Wild Card opponent. The Titans are really missing Derrick Henry. Getting AJ Brown back this week should help, but without their bellcow, teams are really honing in on Ryan Tannehill, and the absence of Brown exposed a weak receiving core. The Colts feel like the best team in the AFC South, and a Thursday Night loss opens the door for them to sneak into the divisional hunt.

The Pick: 49ers 26-23

Saturday Games:

Browns at Packers (-7.5)

Christmas football kicks off in Green Bay. The Packers survived the Tyler Huntley show last week, and they’ll take on another AFC North foe on Saturday. Cleveland is essentially fighting for their playoff life in this game, and the timing isn’t great. The Packers are in position to clinch home field advantage in the playoffs if they win out; I don’t think they’ll let the Browns come into Lambeau and mess that up.

The Pick: Packers 30-23

Colts at Cardinals (-1)

Do we think maybe Arizona was looking ahead to this matchup during their stunning loss to the Lions? Whatever happened last week in Detroit, the Cardinals need to reset because one of the league’s hottest teams is coming to town. The second half of the NFL season has belonged to Jonathan Taylor, and there’s no telling when he slows down. This is a statement game for Kyler Murray. Many people feel that he stole the final Pro Bowl spot at QB from Matthew Stafford in the NFC. If he puts together a signature game against Indy, maybe he can prove some of the doubters wrong.

The Pick: Cardinals 34-31

Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:

Lions at Falcons (-5.5)

When the Lions win, we all win. It’s been great to see this team put together a few victories after the season they’ve been through, and while it does potentially impact their draft position, I think it’s been worth it. What an effort against Arizona last week from Dan Campbell’s group. I think they have a real shot to grab another dub this week against Atlanta. The Falcons were never real playoff contenders, but it feels like now at 6-8, they’re truly out of the hunt. There’s still some hope in Atlanta, and I think they’ll pull out a victory this week to keep the dream alive one week longer.

The Pick: Falcons 23-21

Ravens at Bengals (-3)

This might as well be a playoff game. FiveThirtyEight’s projection model currently gives both of these teams around a 50% chance of making the playoffs, but if each team were to win this week, their odds would jump up to about 80%, while the losers drop to nearly 20%. Needless to say, this game means a lot. Lamar Jackson is still considered to be on a day-to-day status, but Tyler Huntley showed us last week he is more than capable of stepping in if need be. Cincy romped Baltimore when these teams met earlier in the year; I think they secure the season sweep, but it’ll be much closer this time around.

The Pick: Bengals 27-24

Rams (-3) at Vikings

After a slow start, the Rams got it together and put away the Seahawks on Tuesday to pick up a big win. The Cardinals currently hold the tiebreaker in the division, but I think many view the Rams as the far more dangerous team out of the West. What a season it’s been for Cooper Kupp. The OPOTY battle between him and Jonathan Taylor is going to be a great one. The Vikings took care of the Bears to keep their playoff hopes in tact, though the odds are stacked against them with a very tough two game period coming up against LA and then Green Bay. Dalvin Cook just landed on the COVID list as well, which is another rough break. The Rams were my initial pick to come out of the NFC. A win in Minneapolis would be a big one in the grand scheme of things.

The Pick: Rams 31-27

Bills at Patriots (-2)

The winner of this game sees their divisional odds jump all the way up to over 90%, essentially making this a game for the AFC East. New England ground and pounded their way to a victory in Buffalo amidst some of the craziest conditions we’ve seen in recent years. The Pats were the NFL’s hottest team until they ran into Jonathan Taylor. The loss against Indy, paired with the Bills’ victory over Carolina opened the door back up for Buffalo to control their destiny. This is a prove-it game for Josh Allen. This has been New England’s division for basically all of the 2000s. Just as the window appeared to open back up, here they come again. Can Allen shut the door once again? I think so.

The Pick: Bills 28-24

Jaguars (-1) at Jets

The Jaguars have backed their way into the top pick in the NFL draft. It would only be fitting for them to promptly turn it right back over with a win over the Jets in the first Trevor Lawrence-Zach Wilson dual.

The Pick: Jaguars 20-16

Giants at Eagles (-10)

The Eagles are surging, and Jalen Hurts is playing good football. They have a very real shot to slide into the playoffs, and I can’t see the Giants getting in the way of that as they look to improve their draft position. I would like to see Joe Judge roll with Jake Fromm, however, and see what he can do with a full game and an opportunity.

The Pick: Eagles 30-20

Bucs (-10) at Panthers

Last week was about as bad as it can get for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Not only were they blanked by the Saints, but they lost Chris Godwin for the season, as well as Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette for some period of time. I don’t think this is the end of the world for Tampa, but it’s certainly bleaker than it was a week ago. Antonio Brown’s return should help, and a favorable matchup against Carolina will be big in getting this team back on track.

The Pick: Bucs 26-20

Chargers (-10) at Texans

Brandon Staley caught a lot of flack for his aggressiveness against Kansas City last Thursday, but I think he played almost every card right. The plays didn’t shake out his way, but they were the right decisions and when Justin Herbert is your QB, you have to put faith in your offense. The loss is a brutal one for the Chargers, but this is still a dangerous team with a light schedule the rest of the way. They look like a real contender in the AFC.

The Pick: Chargers 31-17

Bears at Seahawks (-6.5)

It’s been a disappointing year for both of these groups. The rest of the season for Chicago should really be about getting Justin Fields more comfortable and confident, while Seattle should be trying to figure out how they’re going to keep Russell Wilson around. For this week, I’ll take the Seahawks in a game that won’t mean much in the grand scheme of things.

The Pick: Seahawks 23-16

Broncos at Raiders (-1.5)

It’s a long shot for either of these teams to make the playoffs currently, but the loser of this one is definitely out. It’s been a confusing year for both of these groups. There have been flashes, but nothing consistent, which has to be frustrating. Vegas took the first one of the season series, so I’ll roll with Denver for a season split.

The Pick: Broncos 26-23

Steelers at Chiefs (-7.5)

The status of both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce remains up in the air, which impacts this game significantly. The big question will be if Andrew Wylie, who is line to start at tackle due to other COVID issues in KC, can keep TJ Watt from having a monster game. As long as the defense is able to roll out most of its starters, the Chiefs should still be ok with Patrick Mahomes at the helm.

The Pick: Chiefs 20-16

Sunday Night: Football Team at Cowboys (-10.5)

The Cowboys have the NFC East in the bag and should be able to officially take the crown by the end of the week. I’m more interested in seeing what type of game this offense puts together against Washington. It has been a struggle getting all of the pieces together over the past few weeks, and with the NFC looking strong, Dallas needs to get back to form if they want to be seriously looked at as Super Bowl contenders.

The Pick: Cowboys 23-17

Monday Night: Dolphins (-1.5) at Saints

With news breaking that both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian have been placed on the COVID list, New Orleans turns to Ian Book. His first career start comes in a pretty crucial game. Both the Dolphins and the Saints need a lot to go their way to enter the playoff field, and this may be one of the breaks Miami needed. We’ll see how Book handles the moment, but for now it feels a lot safer to roll with the Dolphins.

The Pick: Dolphins 24-20

MVP Race

1. Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): For the first time in a while, we have a new leader. I don’t want recency bias to factor too heavily into moving Rodgers into the top slot, but after last week’s performances, the numbers between him and Brady look very similar with Rodgers having a better record and a better TD/INT ratio.
2. Tom Brady (QB- TB): This is practically a 1A/1B scenario. I’m giving Rodgers the nod over Tom for this week after Aaron was fantastic against Baltimore and Brady sputtered against New Orleans. The loss of Chris Godwin makes Brady’s next few weeks a lot more interesting…
3. Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Taylor continues to shine. He single-handedly iced the game against New England last week and he continues to put the Colts on his back. It’s been a special season to watch for JT.
4. Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): No knock on Stafford getting bumped down, as this is more of a nod to Taylor’s brilliance. The Stafford/Kupp connection continues to shine as one of the league’s very best.
5. Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): After putting together a very average first two and a half quarters, Mahomes flipped a switch against the Chargers. Travis Kelce certainly helped the stat line with big runs after the catch, but Mahomes took complete control of the divisional matchup and converted a number of key plays to keep the Chiefs alive and put them in position to snag the AFC’s top seed.

**On The Cusp: Justin Herbert, TJ Watt, Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen, Micah Parsons