We enter week 3 of the NFL with plenty of surprises already occurring. The crop of 2-0 teams features some that we’d expect and some new blood trying to prove they’re for real this season.
We’re still early in this season, and these next few weeks will be pivotal in helping us separate the contenders from the pretenders. Let’s get a look at each matchup this week a little more closely.
Last Week: 10-6 Straight Up, 8-8 ATS
Running Total: 18-14 Straight Up, 15-17 ATS
Thursday Night: Panthers (-8) at Texans
I’ve been riding high on the Panthers’ bandwagon this season, and so far they haven’t let me down. They took it to the Saints last week, and the big surprise has been how stout their defense has looked. The Texans deserve a lot of credit for the way they’ve showed up these first two weeks. Tyrod Taylor was playing at a high level before he got hurt. With rookie Davis Mills making his first start this week, I do think the Panthers have the edge yet again.
The Pick: Panthers 27-20
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Football Team at Bills (-9)
Both of these teams secured wins last week, but they couldn’t have been done more differently. Washington needed quite a few things to go their way to steal one from the Giants, while the Bills dismantled the Dolphins for 4 quarters. Buffalo’s win showed us that Josh Allen doesn’t always have to play at an MVP level for this team to take it to their opponents. The defense is legit and the ground game is showing signs of life. Until the Washington D figures it out, it’s going to be hard to pick them against other contenders.
The Pick: Buffalo 30-17
Bears at Browns (-7)
The Justin Fields era officially kicks off on Sunday. We’ve seen Fields sparingly over the first few weeks, but this week it’s his show. He’ll run into quite a test to start things off, as Cleveland has looked like one of the league’s finest teams early on. I think the Bears can keep this interesting, but ultimately, Baker’s boys are too much.
The Pick: Browns 30-24
Ravens (-7.5) at Lions
How about the Ravens? After a brutal week 1 overtime loss, Baltimore responds by stunning the Chiefs on Sunday night. Lamar Jackson gave us everything we love about him. He’s electrifying when the ball is in his hands. What I really respected was how he stuck to his roots after a tough start to the game. The Ravens had faith in their game-plan and never got down on themselves. As for the Lions, you can’t really draw up a tougher start to the season. This team will win some games, but this isn’t going to be one of them.
The Pick: Ravens 35-24
Colts at Titans (-5.5)
Derrick Henry put the Titans on his back yet again last week, and it saved the Titans from an 0-2 start. The same cannot be said for the Colts, unfortunately. After running into two tough NFC West opponents to start the year, Indy’s first matchup with Tennessee looks like a pretty big one. Dropping to 0-3 puts them in a pretty deep hole out of the gate. The news around Carson Wentz’s ankles isn’t promising either.
The Pick: Titans 30-24
Chargers at Chiefs (-6.5)
For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes has lost a game in September. It’s fitting that his first September loss also featured his first September interception. The streak had to end eventually, but I don’t think many expected it to be in a game that the Chiefs led by double digits. At 1-1, they have an important divisional matchup with the Chargers. These two teams are considered the class of the division, yet both of them sit below the 2-0 Raiders and the 2-0 Broncos. Arrowhead makes the difference, and the Chiefs move their way back up.
The Pick: Chiefs 34-30
Saints at Patriots (-3)
We’ve seen two very different Saints teams in two weeks. Until we learn which one shows up more often, it will be hard to evaluate this team. The Patriots dismantled Zach Wilson and the Jets, and rode their defense to their first win of the season. I think Jameis Winston bounces back this week, and the Saints pick up a signature win in Foxborough.
The Pick: Saints 24-17
Falcons at Giants (-3)
The good news is that one of these teams has to win this game (pending a tie). The Giants probably should be 1-1 right now, and the Falcons looked good for a few quarters last week, so it isn’t all bad here. Nonetheless, early in the year, these feel like two teams that will make up the bottom half of the league. I’ll take Danny Dimes at home in a game that feels like it won’t mean too much by December.
The Pick: Giants 26-23
Bengals at Steelers (-3.5)
Losing TJ Watt clearly affected the Steelers last week against the Raiders. His impact on defense is essential, and it shows when he’s not on the field. His status will have a large impact on this game, and as of now it seems as though the Steelers are hopeful they’ll have him back. That’s bad news for Joe Burrow and Co. The Bengals could break through, but I’m not fully aboard just yet.
The Pick: Steelers 27-20
Cardinals (-7.5) at Jaguars
Kyler Murray looks like a legitimate MVP caliber player right now. Through two weeks, the Arizona QB has elevated his game to a new level, and he’s willed his squad to some impressive wins. Jacksonville has a long year ahead of them. There will be growing pains for Trevor Lawrence, and losing is something that’s still relatively new to him. This season is about development and not much else.
The Pick: Cardinals 35-21
Jets at Broncos (-10.5)
The Broncos sit atop the AFC right now at 2-0. There’s going to be a lot of talk about whether they’re legit or not, given the teams they’ve played early in the year. The Jets don’t exactly help with that narrative. Zach Wilson was discombobulated by Bill Belichick and the Pats last week, and he’ll face another stout defense this week. I do think the Jets manage to keep it close, but ultimately, Teddy Bridgewater does enough to keep the Broncos unbeaten.
The Pick: Broncos 24-20
Dolphins at Raiders (-4)
The other unbeaten team in the AFC? That would be the Las Vegas Raiders. Derek Carr has been phenomenal in these opening weeks, and the Raiders have picked up signature wins against Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Miami is in a tough spot early on. After getting blown out by Buffalo, they will stick with Jacoby Brissett as Tua remains out with a rib injury. Miami actually could hang around with Vegas, but without their QB1, I can’t see them picking up the W on the road.
The Pick: Raiders 30-26
Buccaneers (-1) at Rams
The game of the week goes down in LA. The defending champs take on who many consider to be their biggest threat in a clash of unbeaten teams. Both of these teams have looked unstoppable out of the gate on offense. The Brady/Gronk connection looks as in sync as it did in the prime New England days. Matt Stafford and Sean McVay look like a match made in heaven. This one promises to be entertaining. I don’t think Tampa loses many games this year, but this would be the one I’d say they do drop.
The Pick: Rams 35-32
Seahawks (-2) at Vikings
The Seahawks crumbled at home against the Titans last week, and now they’ll need a win in Minnesota to avoid falling below 500. The good news? The Russell Wilson/Tyler Lockett combo looks better than ever. Always a threat for a big play, Lockett looks like a legitimate #1 early this season. The Vikings, meanwhile, are still haunted by kicking woes. A 37 yard field goal was the difference between a W and an L against Arizona. Kirk Cousins and his group need a huge victory to avoid an 0-3 start.
The Pick: Seahawks 34-28
Sunday Night: Packers at 49ers (-3.5)
Aaron Rodgers bounced back in a big way on Monday night, but he wasn’t the best Aaron on the field. That title belongs to Aaron Jones, who made the most of every touch en route to 4 TDs against the Lions. When he’s rolling, the Packers are tough to beat. San Francisco has shown early that they can beat teams in multiple ways. I’m on the side that week 1 wasn’t the reality for Green Bay, however. I think they get a huge win on the road hereThe Pick: Packers 30-27
Monday Night: Eagles at Cowboys (-4)
An old-fashioned NFC East rivalry wraps up week 3. Both of these teams sit at 1-1, and both have had pretty different starts to their seasons. The Eagles really struggled to get their offense going against San Francisco. I think things will open up a little bit more for them against Dallas. After losing Brandon Graham to an achilles, there are some concerns for that Philly defense. Dallas is the best offensive test they’ll face so far this year. I’m not sure they’ll have many answers.
The Pick: Dallas 31-24
MVP Race
- Kyler Murray (QB- AZ): No change at the top from week 1. Murray was electrifying yet again in week 2, and as of now, he’s establishing himself as the MVP frontrunner.
- Derek Carr (QB- LV): Carr leads the league in passing yards through 2 weeks by a significant margin. Jon Gruden has put his faith in the passing game, and Carr has delivered. If he keeps this up all year, the Raiders can be legit.
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Father Time might have to take the L with this guy. Brady continues to ball out, and I’m not sure he’ll ever slow down. He’s thrown 9 TDs through his first two weeks, and has the Bucs at 2-0. He’ll be in this convo all year long.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): The Stafford/LA honeymoon continues on after week 2. This looks like a perfect fit, and Stafford has responded to the pressure with 2 big wins to open the season. He should put up monster numbers this season.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): Mahomes isn’t unbeaten, but his numbers still look pretty dang good early on. He’s top 3 in both passing yards and passing touchdowns, and he has a rushing TD to go along with that. We expect him to always be in this mix, and for now, he still is.
