The first week of March Madness is officially in the books and brackets are even more busted than usual. The Sweet 16 looks very different than most imagined it would, with the ACC emerging as a surprise conference, boasting 3 representatives in the 2nd weekend.
Three of the four top seeds still remain, but it’s really anyone’s tournament to take, with no clear cut favorite towering over the rest. With the chaos continuing, we’re going to take a moment to re-rank the remaining field. Current seeds are thrown out the window to evaluate where each of these teams stands today. The gap is very small, so a higher ranking doesn’t necessarily mean a team is bound to advance, just that they have the best combination of momentum and talent in my eyes. If this list goes anything like my bracket has, take no stock in it.
16. Saint Peter’s Peacocks
Every part of me wants to put this team higher up on this list, but rationally, I have to stick with them at 16. This isn’t a knock on Shaheen Holloway’s group at all, as I’ve actually been very impressed by how they’ve won in this tournament. Against Kentucky, the Peacocks used a spectacular shooting performance to overthrow a superior opponent. In the next round, they relied on tough defense to push past Murray State. It’s rare to find a mid-major that finds multiple ways to beat tougher opponents, and that’s exactly what this group has done. Nonetheless, there’s a reason no 15 seed has ever advanced past this round.
15. Arkansas Razorbacks
The results of the first weekend have scared me away from Arkansas a bit. Not only was this group pushed to the brink twice by double-digit seeds, but the SEC was dismantled. It’s not entirely fair to pin the failures of other teams in the conference on my mistrust in the Hogs, but it may be telling. This group gets Gonzaga next, and so far, they haven’t seen anything close to the level of talent that the Bulldogs possess. JD Notae is legit, but this group feels like one of the weaker squads remaining in the field.
14. Providence Friars
Similar to Arkansas, Providence is a group that has yet to face a major-conference group. They were pushed to the brink by South Dakota State, and showed that survival instinct they’ve had all year. Following that, they easily handled Richmond. While I respect both of those programs immensely, neither is Kansas. Providence ranks first in KenPom’s luck rating this season. Eventually, that has to run out. This is a squad that is great at closing out games, but what happens when they don’t finish strong? I’m skeptical of Ed Cooley’s team headed into this weekend.
13. Iowa State
Iowa State is the perfect example of the Big 12’s strength this year. This group was rated as high as 8th in the nation before entering conference play. A brutal stretch dropped them down to an 11th seed with a losing conference record. Once they got to play some teams outside of the Big 12, people remembered why they were highly regarded. The Cyclones are physical and they wear you down. Izaiah Brockington is a legitimate star, and the rest of the starting group compliments him well. The concern lies on the offensive end. Can Iowa State create enough scoring to compliment their stellar defense? One name to look for might be Gabe Kalscheur. He’s endured his worst shooting year ever this season, but came up big with 22 against Wisconsin. If he finds his stroke, the Cyclones have a shot.
12. Michigan Wolverines
There’s something about those bubble teams. It seems that every year there’s one group that nobody believes was worthy of making the field. That team promptly responds with a Sweet 16 run. Enter Juwan Howard’s crew. Many felt that Michigan had no business taking a spot in the tournament, yet here they are. Hunter Dickinson has reminded the nation how dominant he can be. Eli Brooks continues to be one of the most undervalued players in the nation, and the Wolverines look like they can keep this thing rolling. Getting past Villanova will be a tall order, but if Dickinson keeps rolling and role players step up, there’s no reason Michigan can’t put the Big 10 on their back once again.
11. Miami Hurricanes
I’ll admit; Miami had me completely fooled. I thought this team was a surefire first round exit. I couldn’t find a way to rationalize them beating USC, let alone dismantling Auburn in the 2nd round. Where Miami is finding success is on the perimeter. Their guard play has been outstanding, and it was clear they had Auburn’s backcourt rattled, thus impacting its frontcourt. Kameron McGusty makes it all go, but Isaiah Wong has stolen the show through the first two rounds. Outside of a poster dunk on Jabari Smith, Wong has paced the Hurricane offense and pestered opposing guards alongside Charlie Moore. Guard play is key in March, and the ‘Canes have plenty of it.
10. Purdue Boilermakers
Jaden Ivey asserted himself as the best player on the court against Texas. He took over the 2nd half and looked every bit the part of a future NBA star. Having an NBA talent on a college floor is always an advantage, and the big man combo of Trevion Williams and Zach Edey compliments him nicely. The concerns for this Purdue team remain on the defensive end. This group is almost identical to Iowa in that their offense is a top 3 unit in the nation, while the defensive side ranks in the 80s. Take one game where the shots don’t fall, and you could be in some trouble. I can’t see Saint Peter’s finding an answer for Ivey, but I’d be very worried about either North Carolina or UCLA awaiting in the Elite 8.
9. North Carolina
Speaking of the Tar Heels, I’ve got the scorching 8 seed ranked 9th. The first two rounds showed us what a beast of team this group can look like at full strength. After destroying Marquette, UNC was on it’s way to doing the same to Baylor before near disaster struck. A questionable ejection of Brady Manek followed by Caleb Love fouling out forced UNC to go to it’s bench, which is far from it’s strength. UNC gets some of the lowest production from it’s backups of any team in the country. It showed Saturday, as the Tar Heels fully collapsed against the Bears, coming plays away from choking a 25 point 2nd half lead. Questionable officiating or not, it’s concerning to see how UNC handled Baylor’s desperate pressure. RJ Davis must continue to shoot the rock the way he has been for this group to continue its run.
8. UCLA Bruins
I’ve got UCLA/UNC as the most balanced matchup of the Sweet 16. I can really see this one going either way. The Bruins have done this before. Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jacquez and Tyger Campbell navigated this squad through last year’s tournament. You can bet that experience will have the Bruins playing freer this weekend. The metrics also support UCLA, as they don’t really drop off on one side of the ball or the other. This is a very balanced team, and Mick Cronin is the right man at the helm. The Bruins will be a tough out for anyone they face, and would be my likely pick to escape the East region.
7. Duke Blue Devils
AJ Griffin’s status is up in the air as of writing this, and that could be the difference in Duke’s season. Griffin has been the Blue Devils’ most reliable outside shooter, and creates one more matchup problem for defenses to worry about. Without him, you might see teams turn even more attention toward Paolo Banchero and dare someone else to beat them with the ball. Wendell Moore is more than capable, and Jeremy Roach is peaking at the right time. I haven’t even gotten to Mark Williams and the problems he poses. Simply put, Duke’s starting 5 possesses quite a few weapons. There’s no denying the talent in this group, but the consistency has been a major issue. Texas Tech will be incredibly physical with this group, and may be one of the worst possible matchups Coach K could’ve been handed.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders’ slot into the #6 spot on toughness and physicality. This is KenPom’s #1 ranked defensive team in the nation, and they show you why every time they step on the floor. There’s nothing pretty about the way Mark Adams’ group wins games, but they continue to win them. Bryson Williams’ emergence as a lead scorer offers a go-to-guy when the offense stalls. When he’s locked in, and Kevin Obanor and Terrence Shannon Jr. shoot it well, this group is nearly unbeatable. Generating offense will continue to be the biggest question, but nobody is going to bully Texas Tech this weekend.
5. Villanova Wildcats
Jay Wright knows how to get his teams ready for March. It’s becoming commonplace to view Villanova as a top contender come Sweet 16 weekend. This year, Collin Gillespie is the key. From the opening tip against Ohio State, it was clear that Gillespie had complete control over the game. His decision making and poise are unmatched across the field, and it gives Nova a distinct advantage each time they take the floor. Not to mention, the Wildcats are one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation. That matters significantly when you reach these later rounds. Little mistakes are magnified, and the ability to connect from the charity stripe can make or break teams.
4. Gonzaga Bulldogs
I’m going to stray from the consensus and place the Bulldogs at #4. Many view this team as the best remaining, and I can understand why. You won’t find a big man duo better than Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Chet is a unicorn while Timme is the perfect college player. He took over the Memphis game and practically willed his group to the Sweet 16. I worry about the Zags mainly because of their depth. The bench isn’t nearly as good for Mark Few as it’s been, and you have to wonder who steps up if a regular gets into trouble. On top of that, this team needed a late surge to get past Georgia State and went back and forth with Memphis all game. I’m riding them to the Final Four, but I don’t buy entirely buy them as champions.
3. Houston Cougars
If the performance against Illinois didn’t do it for you, I’m not sure what will. Houston completely overwhelmed the Illini in the Round of 32, and reminded everyone how tough this future Big 12 program is. The Cougars will not be intimidated by anyone, and they will hound you for 40 minutes on the defensive end. It’s remarkable that they’ve maintained their identity after losing Marcus Sasser. Kyler Edwards has emerged in his absence, and Jamal Shead continues to be brilliant at the point. Kelvin Sampson’s coaching job has been nothing short of brilliant. Houston/Arizona should be circled as the must-see game of the Sweet 16.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks rolled through the first round before getting a scare against Creighton. The Bluejays were unconscious from 3, and Kansas will have to monitor that as they continue their run. This isn’t one of Bill Self’s finest defensive groups, but it’s nowhere near bad. Where they excel is on the offensive end. Ochai Agbaji is an All-American who has yet to explode in this tournament. That’s a great sign for KU faithful. Remy Martin has shouldered the load and been a huge spark for this group while Agbaji has looked for his shot. If the two of them click at the same time, it’s nearly impossible to guard this group. With a relatively easier path ahead, anything short of the Final Four must be viewed as a disappointment for the Jayhawks.
1. Arizona Wildcats
As of right now, Arizona looks like the team to beat in this field. This should speak volumes to what I think of TCU, as the two played an instant classic on Sunday night. Arizona’s pace and athleticism present nightmares to almost every team. The Wildcats love to run, and their bigs get up and down the floor better than any others in the nation. Bennedict Mathurin had his March moment on Sunday. The guard refused to let his team lose, and posted a monster line in the overtime victory. The matchup with Houston this week is so intriguing, and with Villanova also in the region, Arizona faces an uphill battle to reach the Final Four. I believe they have the horses to lead them through the toughest region in the field.
