This season has flown by and we have already made it to the 2020 NFL Playoffs. COVID issues aside, it was a smooth NFL season that actually saw the regular season finish on schedule. For the second year, I have been using my NFL model to project games to great success. While this year was far worse from my projection standpoint, you still would have greatly profited using this model’s picks in Vegas (57.14% ATS).
On this week’s episode of the Campus Cover, Patrick Norton and I break down the NFL playoffs and wildcard weekend. You can listen to that here.
I have run the simulations for the 2020 NFL Playoffs based on win probabilities for each matchup and the likelihood that each matchup occurs.
Wildcard Round
Keep in mind that these projections don’t take into account injuries or COVID absences (looking at you Cleveland). They also don’t take into account that John Wolford may be playing QB for the Rams or Jared Goff’s thumb may just fall off mid-game, so keep that in mind when looking at these projections. Pat and I also gave our opinions on what each team would need to do wildcard weekend to advance.
NFC Chances to Advance
Tampa Bay: 72.54%
New Orleans: 63.43%
Rams: 58.42%
Seattle: 41.58%
Chicago: 36.57%
Washington: 27.46%
AFC Chances to Advance
Tennessee: 70.91%
Cleveland: 64.36%
Buffalo: 59.86%
Indianapolis: 40.14%
Pittsburgh: 35.64%
Baltimore: 29.10%
For the record, I think Baltimore has much more of a chance than this model gives them. It tends to love Tennessee and is low on teams like Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
Divisional Round
Don’t think we forgot about you Packers and Chiefs fans. With having the lone byes this week, you can sit back and watch the action, rooting for your best possible matchups. Based on the first round win probabilities, the most likely Packers opponents in the divisional round are:
Rams: 37.05%
Chicago: 36.57%
Tampa Bay: 19.13%
Washington: 7.24%
On the AFC side, the Chiefs have a similar distribution, but the most likely outcome by this would take quite the upset on wildcard weekend.
Indianapolis: 40.14%
Cleveland: 38.53%
Tennessee: 15.12%
Baltimore: 6.21%
As far as moving on past this round, the model thinks the Packers have very favorable matchups (outside of Tampa) and will likely advance, while the Chiefs could have a few hiccups.
Chance to Advance to NFC Championship
Green Bay: 69.43%
Tampa Bay: 42.10%
New Orleans: 24.11%
Seattle: 24.07%
Rams: 23.43%
Washington: 8.78%
Chicago: 8.08%
Chance to Advance to AFC Championship
Kansas City: 57.38%
Tennessee: 45.30%
Buffalo: 33.84%
Cleveland: 25.20%
Indianapolis: 16.82%
Baltimore: 10.95%
Pittsburgh: 10.51%
Conference Championship
The most likely NFC Championship game matchup is Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay (24.04%) with New Orleans and Seattle as possible Packer opponents right behind.
In the AFC, Chiefs/Titans or Chiefs/Buffalo are the two most likely championship weekend matchups, with no other matchup occuring more than 10% of the time.
Chance to Advance to Super Bowl (NFC)
Green Bay: 45.82%
Tampa Bay: 20.85%
Rams: 11.13%
Seattle: 9.54%
New Orleans: 7.74%
Washington: 2.61%
Chicago: 2.30%
Chance to Advance to Super Bowl (AFC)
Tennessee: 27.85%
Kansas City: 27.31%
Buffalo: 19.67%
Cleveland: 9.39%
Indianapolis: 8.65%
Baltimore: 3.77%
Pittsburgh: 3.36%
Super Bowl Odds
While betting markets believe that Green Bay vs. Kansas City is the most likely super bowl matchup, the model believes that the Packers taking on the Titans is slightly more likely. With that being said, the most likely outcome is that your Super Bowl LV Champion is the Green Bay Packers.
Chance to Win Super Bowl
Green Bay: 29.67%
Tennessee: 14.34%
Tampa Bay: 11.91%
Kansas City: 11.64%
Buffalo: 9.06%
Rams: 5.67%
Seattle: 4.38%
Indianapolis: 3.51%
Cleveland: 3.40%
New Orleans: 2.81%
Baltimore: 1.16%
Pittsburgh: 0.93%
Washington: 0.83%
Chicago: 0.68%
Finding Value
Comparing these probabilities to Vegas odds, you notice a few things. One of those is that the Chiefs are so highly valued in the market that you’re not getting a great price on any of their odds. The Packers, despite having one of the highest values, are undervalued on the other hand because of their high probability to make the super bowl. Here are some of the best bets the model has for the 2020 NFL Playoffs based on odds from BUSR.
- Colts +7 vs. Buffalo
- Tennessee +3.5 vs. Baltimore
- Green Bay to Win NFC (+145)
- Tennessee to Win AFC (+1400)
- Cleveland to Win AFC (+2500)
- Tennessee to Win Super Bowl (+3000)
- Green Bay to Win Super Bowl (+350)
- Exact SB Matchup: Green Bay vs. Tennessee (+3000)
- Exact SB Matchup: Tampa Bay vs. Tennessee (+7000)
