Preseason hype is intoxicating, but it often fails to reflect what happens once games begin and drafted college prospects have to prove themselves under the bright lights. It’s appealing to buy into the idea that a new talent has the potential to be the next big thing when all you’ve got is a record of their NCAA-level triumphs and some carefully chosen highlights of their performance in training camps.
What causes the disconnect between much-vaunted prospects and how they end up putting themselves across come game day is complex. So, here’s a simple explanation.
Preseason Practice Targets Basic Capabilities
Rookies are certainly put through their paces in the preseason period, but this is often more about bringing them up to scratch from a physical perspective, and can leave some unknowns regarding their tactical acuity and game-reading abilities. That’s why odds for the NFL might not align with the media hype around a particular player’s arrival, because bookmakers are naturally more cautious about applying apparent preseason excellence to real game outcomes.
Competition Is An Illusion
Another misleading aspect of judging a player’s capabilities on how they handle the preseason period is that while they might look good on paper, they’ve likely been in matchups against second- and third-string opponents that don’t offer the same competitive edge as their eventual main season opposition. Once they’re going toe to toe with elites who’ve got several seasons under their belt, this illusion might shatter instantly.
The Physical Punishment Is Irreplicable
Football is a physical game at all levels, but to say that there’s a gap between the toll it takes on players’ bodies at a college level and in the NFL is an understatement. Rookies who’ve yet to go through game after game, week after week, in competition against the best athletes in the world, won’t know what’s hit them. Some will thrive in this environment, but plenty will hit a physical wall that causes a performance dip mid-season that’s hard or even impossible to avoid.
The Mental Load Is Different
Football is more than a test of physical strength and speed, particularly in key positions like QB, where being a quick thinker is just as important as being an athletic powerhouse. And just as the body gets worn down with regular NFL-level games, the mind also gets its first real taste of the work it will need to put in to provide players with on-field success.
Essentially, NFL expectations based on pre-season hype aren’t very useful when you’re looking to assess whether a newly drafted player has what it takes to live up to their widely touted potential. If they’ve got all of the basic building blocks of a good player in place, that’s a start. But it’s not until they’re in the thick of the action on a big game day, and they do this week after week, that fans and pundits can even begin to make firm assertions about their value to the team, and the likely trajectory of their career.
