The rescheduling of games due to the Coronavirus means no Thursday night game as we enter week 13 of the NFL season. Instead, we’ll be treated to a Monday night doubleheader and the return of Tuesday night football! Things are definitely going to be a little crazy this week, so let’s make sure we get into it all.
Last Week: 12-4 Straight Up, 8-8 ATS
Running Total: 29-15 Straight Up, 21-23 ATS
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Saints (-3) vs. Falcons
The Falcons have stumped me the last few weeks. They destroyed the Raiders last week after I confidently said the Raiders were a legitimate title threat. The week before that their offense was shut down against the same team they line up against this week. Two games in three weeks against a division opponent is interesting. These two teams are already so familiar with each other, and they just played. The Saints defense looks too dominant right now to drop games while Drew Brees remains out.
The Pick: Saints 27-19
Lions vs. Bears (-3)
Even if they did get stomped by the Packers on primetime, I think there were positives from what the Bears showed us. For starters, that was the best game I think I’ve ever seen from David Montgomery. Given how bad the Lions have been against the run, I like that trend. This team isn’t better, per se, with Mitch Trubisky, but they are more creative. The Lions will have had some extra rest time coming off the Thursday morning Thanksgiving game, but I think the Bears get back on track, finishing the season sweep of Detroit.
The Pick: Bears 24-21
Browns vs. Titans (-6)
This is a huge game for Cleveland. They have quietly crept their way to an 8-3 record behind a lethal rushing attack and solid defense. Their schedule hasn’t led them to too many impressive wins, however. Getting it done on the road against the Titans would be a statement for them. Expect this to be an old-school, run first style game on both sides of the ball. Tennessee is just slightly more dynamic in my opinion, and I think they’ll move to 9-3.
The Pick: Titans 31-21
Bengals vs. Dolphins (-12)
Tua Tagovailoa is currently expected to be a game-time decision, but I’d be confident in Miami even if it’s Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. Fitz has been solid all year in his starts, and the matchup with Cincy is a good one. Without Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon, this team will continue to be heavy underdogs. Miami is a bad matchup for them right now because of how opportunistic their defense is. The Dolphins get to the quarterback, and they create turnovers. I can’t see Brandon Allen creating much of anything for the Bengals offense.
The Pick- Dolphins 24-10
Jaguars vs. Vikings (-10.5)
Another heavy favorite this week is the Vikings. A great comeback win over Carolina kept their playoff hopes alive, and they know they can’t slip up again. Realistically, this team can maybe afford to lose one more game to get in, and it certainly can’t be against the Jags. There are too many weapons on Minnesota’s offense for Jacksonville to contain, and I think they’ll make a statement this week.
The Pick: Vikings 35-20
Raiders (-9.5) vs. Jets
Thank goodness the Raiders get to come back from last week’s nightmare with the Jets. I don’t know if I’ve ever been more wrong about a game pick than I was after witnessing what the Atlanta Falcons did to Las Vegas last Sunday. The Raiders had no energy and were completely shutdown by an average football team. They need to destroy the Jets to get back the mojo they had a few weeks back. A close win over football’s worst team wouldn’t be much of a win for this group.
The Pick: Raiders 34-23
Colts (-3.5) vs. Texans
Continuing with teams coming off of embarrassing losses, we have the Colts. The Titans flexed their muscles last week and proved that despite an earlier loss in the season, they are the team to beat in the AFC South. Will Fuller’s suspension really hurts this Texans group that has been playing a lot better as of late. Deshaun Watson is becoming the NFL’s most under appreciated superstar. He truly is spectacular and it’s a shame the Texans aren’t contending, because his numbers are MVP conversation worthy. The Texans are never out of a game when he’s at QB, so I expect this to be close. Ultimately, the Colts need this win, and their defense will be stingier than usual without having to worry about Fuller.
The Pick: Colts 31-28
Rams (-2.5) vs. Cardinals
Both of these teams suffered disappointing losses last week to inferior opponents. With the Seahawks winning, the stakes for this game are raised. Neither of these teams would like to drop back to back L’s on the schedule. This is a make or break moment for Kyler Murray. We’ve seen some tremendous moments this year, and some not so great. If he is everything we want him to be, this is the type of game you have to get. I think Murray is that guy, and he’ll prove it this week with a huge win for Arizona.
The Pick: Cardinals 31-28
Giants vs. Seahawks (-10.5)
It’s looking more likely that there will be no Daniel Jones for the Giants this week. With Colt McCoy in line to start for New York, I would be stunned to see Seattle do anything but put the hurt on them. Scoring points hasn’t been an issue for the Seahawks, and the good matchup for their defense is just what they need.
The Pick: Seahawks 27-17
Eagles vs. Packers (-7.5)
I’m interested to see what the Eagles are going to do with Jalen Hurts this week. There was talk about an increased role last week, and nothing came of it. I feel like with where they’re at in their season, they have to do something creative quickly, and more packages for Hurts may be the move. I don’t think it’s going to matter much against the Packers. Green Bay should take a quick look at last weeks film of DK Metcalf abusing the Philly secondary and be ready to throw to Davante Adams all day long.
The Pick: Packers 30-20
Patriots vs. Chargers (-1.5)
This is a very tricky game to get a read on. The Chargers are definitely the more talented team on offense, and getting Austin Ekeler back looked to add a whole other dimension to that side of the ball. However, every week we seem to ask ourselves how Anthony Lynn still has his job. We haven’t said that about Bill Belichick in a long while. Once again, coaching is going to be the difference in a tough Charger loss.
The Pick: Patriots 24-20
Sunday Night: Broncos vs. Chiefs (-13.5)
The only logic that can possibly explain a Broncos win on Sunday night:
In all seriousness, the Chiefs are clicking right now on offense, and this matchup is a great chance for the defense to get back on track.
The Pick: Chiefs 31-17
Monday Night Doubleheader
Football Team vs. Steelers (-7)
I’ve been waiting to give you all my boldest call yet. Here it is. Coming off of extra rest and a blowout win over the Cowboys, Alex Smith and Washington Football Team will hand the Pittsburgh Steelers their first loss of the season. I love the matchup for Washington, but I especially love the timing. The Steelers have to be gassed emotionally and physically after the whirlwind of last week against Baltimore. It showed in the way they barely escaped what was essentially the Ravens second team. The short week won’t help and I think this week will be the one where we see the Steelers drop one they probably shouldn’t have.
The Pick: Washington 27-24
Bills vs. 49ers (-1)
The Niners picked up a great win over the Rams last Sunday. They have a great chance to sneak back into the playoff conversation if they can keep it rolling against the Bills. Josh Allen is back to playing at a high level and the Bills know they can’t afford to slip up with Miami on their toes. It’s possible that Buffalo looks ahead to their Sunday night matchup with Pittsburgh next week, but I think they’ll get the job done.
The Pick: Bills 30-22
Tuesday Night: Cowboys vs. Ravens (-7.5)
You have to tip your cap to the Baltimore Ravens. They were as depleted as you’ll ever see an NFL roster, and they still almost pulled off a shocking upset over the Steelers. Getting much of their offense back against a Cowboys group that just got humiliated by Washington should be exactly what the Ravens need.
The Pick: Ravens 31-20
MVP Race:
5. Derrick Henry- It’s time we give a little love to the running back spot. Derrick Henry has quite literally carried the Titans the past few weeks. He has been arguably the most dominant running back football has seen in last 10 years with the way he runs resembling the old ways of power football. With all respect to Ryan Tannehill, the Titans are nowhere near where they are without Henry.
4. Josh Allen- Allen just did his thing in the Bills win over the Chargers last week. Nothing spectacular, but he made every play you need to make to win games. His opportunity to really climb again will come next week against the Steelers.
3. Russell Wilson- I would also throw the ball to DK Metcalf 13 times if he was my receiver. When Russ is in command of his offense it’s just so fun to watch. I expect the Seahawks to really finish the season hot.
2. Aaron Rodgers- The man dominated a division rival on primetime television yet again. It has been overall a fantastic year yet again for Green Bay legend.
1. Patrick Mahomes- Every week this just gets clearer and clearer. It’s almost laughable how many records this guy continues to break and the ease with which he does it.
Fantasy Advice:
Five To Play With Confidence:
- Raheem Mostert- Mostert finally appears healthy and has a great matchup against a weaker Buffalo run defense this week. The Niners backfield has been a roller coaster this year, but when he’s there, Mostert is probably the best of the bunch.
- David Montgomery- As I noted above, last week looked like the most burst we’d seen from Montgomery in a long time. The matchup with Detroit is too good to have any doubts.
- Devontae Booker- Josh Jacobs won’t go, which means Booker will be the feature back for the Raiders. I expect them to be up for a majority of the game on the Jets, and think he’s in line for a lot of carries.
- Robert Tonyan- The Eagles haven’t defended the TE spot well at all this year. Tonyan has gotten back into the form he was in at the start of the year over the past few weeks. Look for him to keep it rolling with Aaron Rodgers this week.
- Hollywood Brown- We finally got to see Hollywood show off his gamebreaking ability with a big touchdown against the Steelers. With a great matchup against the Dallas secondary, I think the Ravens have to continue to go back to their most explosive receiver.
Five To Hesitate On:
- Cole Beasley- Beasley has been a fantasy revelation out of the slot for Buffalo this year. However, he gets a tough matchup with the Niners this week, and I think the Bills are going to rely more on their bigger playmakers to get it done.
- Brandin Cooks- Cooks is in line to see an increase in targets with Will Fuller suspended. However, that means he’ll receive extra attention from a tough Indianapolis secondary. I’d be wary starting him this week.
- Ezekiel Elliott- Increasingly becoming one of the most frustrating players in fantasy football, it is just hard to trust Zeke as the playoffs roll around. Last week was the lowest amount of usage he’s seen, and he clearly has not been the same player with Dak out.
- Frank Gore- Gore has been better in the last two weeks and does have a nice matchup against the Raiders. However, it’s just hard to trust him to produce when you combine his age with the fact that the Jets are likely to be down all game long.
- Jerry Jeudy- The Chiefs locked Jeudy up for only 2 catches and 20 yards in their last matchup. With L’Jarius Sneed back in the lineup for KC, the matchup only gets tougher.
