We’re back for another exciting week of NFL action! Teams are beginning to officially punch their tickets to the playoffs, and for many fantasy leagues, week 14 indicates the start of their own playoff runs. There’s obviously a lot to cover this week, so let’s get to it.
Last Week: 11-4 Straight Up, 9-6 ATS
Running Total: 40-19 Straight Up, 30-29 ATS
Thursday Night: Patriots vs. Rams (-5.5)
Two teams coming off of convincing wins matchup for one of the better Thursday night games of the year, and a rematch of the 2019 Super Bowl. The Rams have huge divisional matchups still looming with both the Seahawks and Cardinals in weeks 16 and 17. Meanwhile, the Patriots are trying to make a late playoff push of their own which will probably require winning out. This should be a wire-to-wire game, but I think just a few weeks after beating Brady, the Rams complete the revenge tour with a win over Belichick.
The Pick: Rams 26-23
Final Score: Rams Win 24-3 (Dec 10th.)
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Texans (-1.5) vs. Bears
The Bears are officially a mess. Following in an inexplicable late collapse to the Detroit Lions, the hot seat is now getting even hotter for Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace. There’s really no better example of poetic justice than seeing Deshaun Watson, who the Bears famously passed over in 2017, be the guy that officially leads to management changes in the Windy City.
The Pick: Texans 31-24
Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Bengals
A matchup of two teams who probably didn’t see their seasons going this way. Both teams are without their star quarterbacks as we enter the late part of the season, turning this matchup into a serious battle for draft position. Dallas still has a fighting chance at the NFC East, and I think that sliver of hope powers them to a win in Cincy.
The Pick: Cowboys 24-16
Chiefs (-7) vs. Dolphins
In sloppy performances for both of these teams last week, they each found a way to get it done against weaker opponents. The games just get more important for the Chiefs each week as they fight the Steelers for the first round bye in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Dolphins currently hold the 6 seed, and will be in a dogfight for playoff position as the year closes. Ultimately, this is just a game the Chiefs cannot afford to lose, and I don’t see Miami interrupting their plans.
The Pick: Chiefs 30-24
Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Giants
Let’s give it up for the New York Giants. This team is riding a fantastic defense to a potential playoff spot. They picked up a massive win over Seattle last week, despite being without Daniel Jones. This team has handled adversity well, and it’s now starting to feel like maybe we’ve underestimated how far their defense can take them. The Cardinals are on a tailspin and are a Hail Mary away from having a losing record. This Giants defense might just catch Kyler and Co. at the right time to keep things rolling.
The Pick: Giants 23-21
Vikings vs. Buccaneers (-6.5)
Minnesota narrowly escaped Jacksonville in overtime to keep their playoff hopes alive. They currently sit in the 7th spot while this week’s opponent, Tampa Bay, holds the 6th seed. Tampa should be fresh off of their late season bye week, and I think their extra time to prepare, paired with some shaky play from the Vikings lately, will be enough to widen their lead in the standings.
The Pick: Buccaneers 27-20
Broncos vs. Panthers (PUSH)
Christian McCaffrey’s status is still up in the air, which probably means more to fantasy players than actual fans of either of these teams. There isn’t a ton of intrigue in this matchup, but it will be interesting to see which QB outplays the other. Both Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater need strong finishes to their seasons to convince their franchises that they can be the QB of the future.
The Pick: Panthers 27-24
Titans (-7) vs. Jaguars
The Titans were jumped early by the Browns in a big matchup between two teams with even records. Despite a strong effort to come back, it wasn’t quite enough. This team is clearly at its best when they are able to dictate pace and establish the tempo through Derrick Henry. When they had to abandon the run, it created problems. Jacksonville has shown a lot of fight against quality opponents this season. However, given how tight the race for draft position is, it’s really just counterintuitive to steal this win, other than to deliver a blow to a division rival.
The Pick: Titans 31-20
Colts (-2.5) vs. Raiders
I don’t even know what to think of the Raiders at this point. One of the most improbable endings to a football game that I’ve ever seen kept them alive in the playoff chase. The Colts are a slight step up from the Jets, and a win would give them a very safe cushion over Vegas if they aren’t able to win the AFC South. Indy’s defense should prove to be too tough for Vegas to overcome.
The Pick: Colts 28-24
Jets vs. Seahawks (-13)
There is truly no way to explain how the Jets lost last week other than a dedication to the 0-16 tank. If you haven’t seen the stat that shows just how odd Gregg Williams calling a blitz on the last play of the game was, then enjoy:
I don’t know how you come back from something like that. However, the Seahawks have some serious questions of their own to answer. Russell Wilson couldn’t get anything going against the Giants, and a surprising loss resulted. I don’t know that they blow out the Jets, but I certainly expect them to win.
The Pick: Seahawks 27-17
Packers (-7.5) vs. Lions
Credit to the Lions for fighting back to earn a gutsy win over the Bears in their first game without Matt Patricia. Unfortunately for them, the Packers aren’t the Bears. This team is in a battle for the top seed in the NFC, and I don’t think they’ll let their division rivals spoil their momentum.
The Pick: Packers 34-24
Saints (-7) vs. Eagles
At the beginning of the year we thought we’d be seeing a great battle of Drew Brees vs. Carson Wentz for two teams primed to be in playoff contention. We’re getting… not exactly that. The Saints have held up their end of the bargain, holding the top spot in the NFC even with Taysom Hill filling in for Brees. The Eagles have finally pulled the plug on Wentz’s starting QB life support, and are handing the reigns to rookie Jalen Hurts. I like the move, but I don’t like the timing. Throwing Hurts into the fire against this Saints defense seems like a setup for failure. I just hope Philly sticks with it no matter what happens this week.
The Pick: Saints 30-17
Falcons (-2.5) vs. Chargers
I’m tempted to pick this game to end in a tie, because there’s never been a game where it would make more sense. The Falcons and Chargers have become the gold standard of the last few years for finding creative ways to lose football games. However, last week, the Chargers simply opted for the “absolute blowout” option. A 45-0 smackdown courtesy of the Patriots was the first time we’ve seen Justin Herbert really look like a rookie. How he bounces back against an Atlanta team that has played better than their record suggests will tell us a lot about him. In what may be a slight upset, I like the Chargers to pick up a win.
The Pick: Chargers 30-27
Football Team vs. 49ers (-2.5)
Am I the only one who looks at this line and feels like we need to stop disrespecting the Washington Football Team. Shoutout to them for making me look like I have some idea of what I’m talking about in pulling off the upset of the season so far over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The reason I liked them last week wasn’t just blind optimism, though. Washington has a top-10 defense in this league, and if you didn’t notice, Alex Smith just wins football games. He’s up to 3-1 this season as a starter, and had Washington sitting at 6-3 back in 2018 before his injury happened. With the way the 49ers were just dismantled on Monday Night Football, and the fact that their “home field” this week is in Arizona, I just don’t quite get this week’s line. I’m sticking with The Football Team.
Pick: Washington 24-20
Sunday Night: Steelers vs. Bills (-2.5)
There’s nothing better than getting the game of the week on Sunday Night. Buffalo is coming into this game on an absolute tear, and I think it might be time to start recognizing them as a legitimate contender in the AFC. Don’t let the loss fool you; Pittsburgh is still strong as well. We’re going to learn a lot about both of these teams in what could be the most significant game of the year in the AFC. Josh Allen is red-hot right now, and I think he picks up a signature win.
The Pick: Bills 34-31
Monday Night: Ravens (-1) vs. Browns
The Browns were up to the task against Tennessee and likely silenced a lot of doubters in the process. That might have been Baker Mayfield’s finest game as an NFL quarterback, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Baltimore got back to their winning ways as well with an easy win against Dallas on Tuesday night. The Ravens are still on the outside looking in, however. I view Baltimore as a playoff team, and in order for them to be that, these are the types of games that they have to win.
The Pick: Ravens 31-28
MVP Race
5. TJ Watt- Am I really gonna put a defensive player on my MVP list? Absolutely I am. TJ has been dominant this season, and with Bud Dupree out for the season, his play could really dictate the Steelers’ season. That’s what most valuable players bring to their teams, right?
4. Russell Wilson- He’s slipping week by week, folks. Russ has been solid, no question about it, but his play over the last 4-5 weeks have been nowhere near the MVP level he was at when the season began.
3. Josh Allen- This is really just a three man race at this point. Allen scorched the Niners on Monday to continue his tear, but he hasn’t had the consistency that the top two have had, which is the main reason he hasn’t quite caught them yet.
2. Aaron Rodgers- After a strong performance last week the gap is getting closer for the top spot. Rodgers has had an MVP season, he just isn’t the only one who has.
1. Patrick Mahomes- We’ve reached the point where a bad week for Mahomes is 300 yards and a touchdown. Not to mention he had two other TDs wiped out by a no-challenge, and a hold that didn’t even need to happen.
Fantasy Advice
Five to Start With Confidence
- Amari Cooper- Cooper has been one of the lone Cowboys who hasn’t experienced a major drop in production without his starting QB. He has strung together multiple strong games in a row and I expect that to continue against Cincy.
- Mike Williams- Atlanta gives up a lot of yards to receivers, and I expect a lot of their attention to be on not letting Keenan Allen burn them. I think Williams could have one of his better games of the year.
- Dallas Goedert- I like Goedert in PPR formats this week. I’m not sure how many yards he’ll rack up, but I think we’re going to see Jalen Hurts look for his TE quite a bit in his first start, given how good the Saints’ defense is. A safety net might be necessary for Hurts.
- Myles Gaskin- Gaskin returned last week and put up a solid game. The Chiefs have really struggled to stop running backs this year, and I think Miami will lean on him to try and pull off the upset.
- JK Dobbins- I think Baltimore is finally starting to realize that Dobbins should be the feature back in their offense. It’s not a great matchup with Cleveland, but whenever Dobbins gets the carries he deserves, he usually has done something with them.
Five to Hesitate On:
- Marvin Jones Jr- With Kenny Golladay still out, Jones will likely receive a lot of attention from the Packer defense. That likely means a lot of time with lockdown corner Jaire Alexander. While he did have a touchdown last time these two played, he was held to 4 catches for just 23 yards.
- Peyton Barber- Barber should see extra work with Antonio Gibson likely out this week, but that doesn’t mean he’s a super viable option. Barber has good goal-line upside, but if he doesn’t find the end zone, he’s a liability, especially with JD McKissic also in the backfield.
- Miles Sanders- Sanders has struggled to get things going lately in general. I don’t see a game against the NFL’s best rush defense being the one to break him out of his slump.
- Juju Smith-Schuster- Juju has been racking up catches, but he’s not doing a ton with them. There are so many receivers in Pittsburgh all around the same caliber, that it’s becoming hard to place bigger value on Juju as a true #1.
- David Johnson- It looks like Johnson might finally be healthy, but that doesn’t necessarily translate to success. The Bears have been stout against the run all year, and Johnson worries me against their front.
