Here we have a classic bowl season matchup: One team that is shocked to be here, and another that may be disappointed in their season. Having just played two seasons ago in a bowl game, the matchup is fresh in the minds of fans, especially Cardinals fans, as Lamar Jackson’s final college game was a loss to Mississippi State. So will Scott Satterfield keep his momentum going, or will Joe Moorhead gain some goodwill back with an uneasy fanbase?

How They Got Here: Louisville

Following the departure of Lamar Jackson two seasons ago, Cardinals fans knew they would be in for a rebuild, but then Bobby Petrino happened. The season tanked, Petrino was fired, and App State HC Satterfield was brought in. This season was definitely looking like a “year zero” situation, especially after a season opening loss to Notre Dame. And then, it wasn’t.

The Cardinals rattled off 7 wins, including upsets of both Wake Forest and Virginia. QB Micale Cunnigham has thrown only 96 passes, with 20 touchdowns, making 19.6% of his throws a touchdown. RB Javian Hawkins is a freshman with 1,420 rushing yards on the ground. Receiver Tutu Atwell rounds out the dangerous group with 1,129 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns.

Defensively…. well the Cardinals have some holes. In the final game of the season against arch-rival Kentucky (a common opponent between the two teams) Louisville gave up 517 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. On the bright side, they only gave up two passing yards, but Kentucky only threw the ball twice. Unfortunately, the strength of Mississippi State is firmly in their run game.

How They Got Here: Mississippi State

It would be fair to say the Bulldogs shouldn’t be here. They are one dog pissing celebration away from overtime against rival Ole Miss, and who knows what would have happened there. Coach Joe Moorhead has been under fire for much of the season due to perceived “letdown” this season (I don’t think that is fair, but that is an article for another time). Rumors even circulated that Moorhead would be let go with an Egg Bowl loss. Obviously, they won and that did not come to pass. In addition, throughout the year multiple players faced eight game suspensions for academic misconduct, including star LB Willie Gay Jr. Luckily those suspensions are done, so Moorhead should have no more issues, right? Well… No

Late last week, Moorhead announced that true freshman starting QB Garrett Shrader would miss the bowl game after suffering an injury in a practice altercation with Gay. In his place will be Tommy Stevens, a Penn State grad transfer who started the beginning of the year before injury. Luckily for the Bulldogs, RB Kylin Hill will play in the game despite declaring for the NFL draft. Hill, who led the SEC in rushing, should get all the carries he wants Mississippi State attempts to stuff it down the Cardinals throat. Hill had a big game against Kentucky earlier this year, so he should be confident he can do the same against the Cardinals.

Defensively, the Bulldogs had an up and down year. Suspensions and injuries hit the defense heavily, and their top two secondary players, Cameron Dantzler and Brian Cole, announced they were sitting out of the bowl game. Willie Gay Jr, the Bulldogs best defensive player, is playing, which will help settle the defense. However, expect the Cardinals to be able to move it against this defense.

Louisville Player To Watch: Jacian Hawkins, RB

It was tempting to put QB Cunningham here since the Bulldogs are thin on the back-end, but they also struggled against the rush this year. Hawkins has had a big year so if he can help open up the pass game a bit, State could be in for a long day.

Mississippi State Player To Watch: Tommy Stevens, QB

Kylin Hill would be the easy choice, but where is the fun in that? Stevens, who worked with Moorhead at Penn State, started the season hot before injury derailed his season. Now, he gets one more shot as a starter, and to help his coach going into next season. He’s a senior, and this is his last game. If we see a Tommy Stevens breakout game in his last game, I called it first.

Degenerate Section: MSU -5.5 (O/U 63.5)

Am I taking Mississippi State almost solely based off one common opponent? Yeah. Both teams have been up and down this year, but Mississippi State almost feels more desperate for a win. Of course, that could go one of two ways. But after watching Louisville display the worst rush defense I have ever seen against Kentucky, I have to ride with the Bulldogs. And goodness, take the under.

You can view the rest of our 2019 bowl previews here.