Week 1 Record: 2-3; YTD: 4-4

The write-ups were a rough go as we went 0-3, but we did cash 2 tweet plays so we finished an underwhelming 2-3. I highly implore you to follow my twitter @bayoubets225 so you can get the most up to date plays in case I am not able to post a write-up in time. That being said, I am very excited about the plays we have this week, so let’s waste no more time. Let’s HIT THE BOOKS!

North Carolina State +7.5

On one end, we have a team that has completely blown out its competition the last two weeks but have played cellar dwellers. On the other, you have a team that went into a raucous visitor atmosphere and took an upswing opponents’ best shot, yet still came out with the victory. I’m more inclined to bet on the latter.

Notre Dame has looked very impressive with new QB Sam Hartman scoring 42 and 56 points. But that was against Navy and Tennessee St. All parts of their offense and defense looked mighty, but they haven’t been truly tested yet. NCST took on a very underrated UConn squad who treated their opener like it was the national championship and still won by double digits. I will say that the strength of the NCST O-Line worried me a bit as UConn held their own. Brennan Armstrong wasn’t the sharpest but that was to be expected in Week 1 under new OC Robert Anae.

Overall, this week we will truly see what ND can do with closer to even competition. We will also see how efficient NCST will look under more favorable conditions. I expect this game to be much closer than the spread suggests, and getting +7.5 is too many. Give me the Wolfpack to keep this one close and a FG to decide it.

Texas State/UTSA O65.5

Frank Harris couldn’t have possibly looked any worse last week against Houston. Texas State couldn’t have possibly looked any better by covering the +28 against Baylor and winning OUTRIGHT! So, what do we take from these two circumstances?

I can only expect more offense. Texas State is pure guns blazing under new HC GJ Kinne and made QB TJ Finley look like a Heisman candidate. UTSA was in a slugfest against a very stingy Houston defense. But let’s not take away that the Roadrunners put up 417 yards of offense against the Cougars, so they were moving the ball. Texas State is NOT Houston and their defense is nowhere near the Cougars after giving up 524 yards against Baylor.

I have to expect UTSA HC Jeff Traylor to clean up the turnovers from his 6th year QB and this should be the matchup to do it. I expect GJ Kinne to replicate this same performance on offense, averaging 16.2 seconds a play, keeping this high-flying passing attack in cruise control. The line movement on this total went up 3 points since the open, so the oddsmakers agree to a shootout. Give me a potential scoreboard malfunction with plenty of points in a high-octane matchup of two terrific offenses.

Boise State +3.5

Here we have another situation of 2 teams who had much different competition issues in Week 1. The Broncos ran into an absolute buzzsaw last week by getting ran over by the Washington Huskies 56-19. UCF played against quite possibly the worst team in the FBS in Kent State and dismantled them 56-6. Taylen Green was held in check for much of the game, while John Rhys Plumlee looked ready to lead an NFL team.

Looking further, I seem to like the home dog here. Boise State was clearly out of their league playing against a potential CFP team with a Heisman contender at QB and 1st team AA WR’s. I can’t fault them for that. UCF did not get challenged at all and watching that game, I did not leave being very impressed with the offense. Plumlee did not stretch the field much during the game through the air and a lot of yards were made after the catch.

I have to believe Boise State’s OC lets Green loose from the pocket in this game and use his legs. Let’s keep in mind that UCF has NEVER been up to Boise before, so elevation can be an issue here. Gus Malzahn is 10-14 ATS on the road since 2018. Boise State is also 130-15 in Albertsons Stadium since 2000 and 21 straight victories in home openers. I think getting above a field goal with a dominant home team who is tested is a great bet. Bet the Broncos and don’t forget to sprinkle that ML!