Week 2 Record: 2-3; Record YTD: 6-7

Miami (OH) +14 at. Cincy

You may notice a recurring trend of prior teams we targeted in this article. It’s not so much a fact of “Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me”, but it’s more of a situation where I really like where these teams are getting their opponents this week. The Redhawks took a major step in the right direction last week against UMass with Gabbert tossing 4 TD’s. Former Southeastern LA standout Gage Larvadain caught a record 273 receiving yards and 3 TDs.

Here, we get a Cincinnati squad that is coming off a huge road upset of Pittsburgh and has No. 19 Oklahoma on deck at home. We have the premier sandwich spot here with a MAC team that they can be looking past to the future. The MAC may be a notch down this season, but Miami (OH) is considered a Top 3 team in the conference. With the Redhawks offense finally showing some explosiveness and a prime lookahead spot here, I’m willing to take another chance. Give me the 14 and Miami (OH) to keep this contest interesting.

South Alabama +7.5 at. Ok State

Once again, were going back to the well with a prior week’s selection. South Bama ran into a very underestimated Tulane team, in my opinion. The Wave were up at halftime against Ole Miss WITHOUT starting QB Michael Pratt. That matchup between each other in Week 1 was much closer than the score indicates and I still believe they are the best team in the Sun Belt this season.

Oklahoma State is currently in Week 3 of the season and Coach Gundy is still letting 3 QB’s take snaps. You know the saying, “If you have 2 QBs, you really have none”? Well, what do you have when you have 3 QBs? Oklahoma State won the yardage battle by 27 against ASU last week but committed 9 penalties to ASU’s 4. The Cowboys start conference play by going to Iowa State next week, so there is a possible look ahead here.

The Jaguars have played a ranked AAC team and a ranked FCS team, so they have been battle tested so far, versus a Cowboys team still trying to find their identity on offense. I do not see that happening against a vet laden Sun Belt squad who is hungry to knock off a BIG 12 opponent. I really see this game being a slugfest with a FG deciding who wins here, so points should be scarce. Give me the touchdown and sprinkle the ML just in case the Cowboys still sputter on offense.

Florida +7 vs. Tennessee

The classic case of overreaction here. Graham Mertz and company were the butt of everyone’s jokes after their Week 1 loss at Utah. But what if I told you that Graham Mertz currently has a better QBR than everyone’s Heisman darling Joe Milton? Both QBs have not looked pretty so far this season, so in this matchup, I think having home field is key.

Tennesse has won only twice in Gainesville since 1971. Tennesse has not beaten Florida in back-to-back years since 2004. The Vols have lost their last nine in The Swamp. This is Joe Milton’s first trip on the road this season and to an SEC opponent no less. I do think if Coach Josh Heupel gets a Hendon Hooker-like performance out of Milton, things could get ugly, but I’m not counting on that.

Bottom line is I just don’t trust Joe Milton in a hostile visiting atmosphere. Florida is in desperate need of a win, even though there is no shame in losing at Utah. A great performance and win at home would silence a lot of doubters on HC Billy Napier and could cool his seat tremendously. I expect The Swamp to be electric and give The Gators every advantage necessary to get the W. Too many points here, so give me the TD and sprinkle the ML on the home squad.