The Atlantic Sun Conference tournament kicks off today with two first round matchups. The day kicks off with the 8th seed Bellarmine taking on the 7th seed North Florida. The other matchup is the 10th seed Florida Gulf Coast taking on the 9th seed Queens. These two matchups are the first two games of all of the conference tournaments that’ll take place over the next two weeks. Here are my two best bets for the start of championship week in college hoops.
8 Bellarmine vs 7 North Florida (-4) (O/U 140)
These two teams met once this season with the Ospreys beating Bellarmine 79-67 on Friday night. This game will be played at Liberty, the team that will get the winner of these two in the quarterfinals. North Florida away from home this season has struggled. The Ospreys are 3-14 away from home this season. This is a major red flag especially for a team that is listed as a favorite in a neutral site game. Bellarmine isn’t any better away from home as they are 6-11 this season away from their home building.
The good thing for the Ospreys is that they have three guys that average double figures this season. Senior forward Carter Hendricksen (16.5 ppg), senior guard Jose Placer (14.1 ppg) and senior guard Jarius Hicklen (12 ppg). In their only meeting against Bellarmine this season, the trio combined for 46 out of the team’s 79 points. North Florida also needed a big second half to get past Bellarmine.
For Bellarmine, they don’t wow you on the scoreboard but defensively they play very well. The Knights give up around 67 points per game and if they contain the Ospreys’ big three they have a real shot at this game. They are going to need their leading scorer to play like their leading scorer. Garrett Tipton, who averages 12.8 points per game for the Knights, only had nine against North Florida in last Friday’s matchup.
Betting Trends
-Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Monday games.
-Knights are 6-2 ATS following a straight up loss.
-Ospreys 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
The Don’s Final Thought
North Florida’s defense won’t play as well as they did the other night in their Atlantic Sun regular season finale. I think Bellarmine covers this number and wins this game outright. Bellarmine +4 and +150 are the plays in this one. Could see this number and the money line price drop so grab it while you can.
10 Florida Gulf Coast vs 9 Queens (-1.5) (O/U 154.5)
This will be a nice matchup between the 9 and 10 seed. Florida Gulf Coast and Queens have met once this season and it was a neck and neck the entire way with Queens grabbing the victory. This matchup is being played at Kennesaw State where the winner of this plays the Owls in their quarterfinal matchup. I look at the Royals as the better team, but never sleep on the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles.
Queens has two players that average 15+ points per game (Kenny Dye and A.J. McKee). Dye averages 17.2 points per game while McKee averages 15.7 points per game. This team averages 78.6 points per game while they allow 75.5 points per game. Florida Gulf Coast is led by guard Isaiah Thompson who averages 15.1 points per game. The Eagles average 71.8 points per game and allow 69.7 points per game. Both these teams aren’t afraid to score and this could be another shootout.
Betting Trends
-Florida Gulf Coast is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games.
-Florida Gulf Coast is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
-Royals’ overs are 4-1-1 in their last 6 games overall.
The Don’s Final Thoughts
This game will be a barn burner, a lot of points will be scored I would lean over 154.5. However, the play in this one is Queens -1.5. They have the advantage and if Florida Gulf Coast’s leading scorer doesn’t get going early this team will struggle. Ride the Royals in this Atlantic Sun first round matchup. Play this line up to 2.5.
The Don’s A-Sun Official Plays
Bellarmine +4 -106
Bellarmine +150
Queens -1.5 -117
