The NCAA tournament is back ladies and gentlemen and I am beyond excited. Tonight we have a first four matchup between two teams in power five conferences. We have the Mississippi State Bulldogs taking on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The power five battle should be a nice little start to this tournament. Mississippi State makes their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2019 where they got bounced in the first round by the 12th seed Liberty. While Pittsburgh is making their first appearance since 2016 when Jamie Dixon was still their head coach. The winner of this matchup will take on the 6th-seeded Iowa State. This is honestly a winnable opponent for both of these teams. Now it has been a few years for both of these programs so why don’t we dive into the predictions for tonight’s first four matchup?
Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Mississippi State Bulldogs finished the season 21-12 and the last time we saw them play they got embarrassed by the SEC tournament champions and number one overall seed Alabama Crimson Tide. Mississippi State is led by 6’11 senior forward Tolu Smith who averages 15.8 points per game to go along with 8.5 rebounds per game. The Bulldogs have been at their best while they are on defense this season. When holding opponents under 45% from the field, they are 20-7. They are also fifth in the tournament in adjusted defensive efficiency.
If the Bulldogs want to win this game, their defense needs to be a vital reason why. Their offense needs to step up in a big way tonight. Guys like Shakeel Moore and D.J. Jefferies are going to need to be big tonight for the Bulldogs. Mississippi State is the worst 3-point shooting team in the tournament (26.6%) and they are the worst free-throw shooting team in the tournament as well (64.7%). If their defense can hold Pittsburgh who is a good three-point shooting team under 35% from beyond the arc, those offensive struggles won’t matter.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Jeff Capel has the Pittsburgh Panthers back in the NCAA tournament. The Panthers had a shot at the ACC regular season crown, but they come into this tournament with a chip on their shoulder. Pittsburgh is led by the duo of senior guard Jamarius Burton and junior forward Blake Hinson. Burton averages 15.6 ppg to go along with 4.8 rpg and 4.3 apg. Hinson averages 15.6 ppg to go along with 6.2 rpg which leads the team. These are the two most important players, but they are going to need guys like Nelly Cummings (11 points per game 42/36/89 shooting split) and Greg Elliott (10.4 points per game) to step up as well.
Cummings in February/March has shot 47.6% from beyond the arc and in Pitt’s three losses in March, Elliott is 0-6 from three. With Mississippi State being bad from beyond the arc, the Pitt interior defense is going to need to be in their best form. The Pittsburgh winning formula is to keep possession, force turnovers and make Mississippi State beat you from beyond the arc. If the Panthers do that then they will be moving on to face Iowa State on Thursday.
The Don’s Bets
I have three total plays in this one. In the first half, I am taking Mississippi State -0.5 -117 and under 62.5. For the full game, I am taking the over 133. I think the Bulldogs come out the gate firing, they keep Pittsburgh on their toes defensively. Then they lead at the half and in the second half both offenses start to find their groove. At the end of the game, I see the Bulldogs moving on but I don’t feel like sweating them for the entire game. It’s March ladies and gentlemen anything can happen.
