Missouri Valley Conference: Evansville @ Illinois State, 6:00 pm Central Tip-Off
Another FFP cashed last week with Manhattan-Iona hitting the over. In the eyes of NBA Jam, we’re heating up. so let’s cash another ticket and catch fire. Tonight, I’m looking at a matchup in the MVC with Evansville visiting Illinois State.
There is no way to sugarcoat it: The Evansville Purple Aces are just a really bad basketball team. They are 4-12 on the season and 0-5 in conference. They have two guards in Shamar Givance and Jawaun Newton averaging over 14 points per game, but the rest of the team refuses to give them any help, averaging under 8 ppg. Evansville has not cracked over 60 points in their last 3 games and have only eclipsed 70 once in 2 months.
The Illinois State Redbirds, led by 8th year HC Dan Muller, are a money-making machine this year. They play at a break-neck pace averaging a shade under 75 possessions per game (26th in the nation). The Redbirds are in the top half in the country in Effective Poss. Ratio (EPR), so the Birds can play fast and make the trips count.
Illinois State has a dynamic scorer in Junior Guard Antonio Reeves, averaging over 20 ppg. They have two other starters who average over 12 ppg and two other contributors who pitch in over 9 ppg. This is a veteran group with two seniors and three juniors starting, so I like the chemistry this team has and the experience under their belt.
Evansville ranks in the bottom 20 in pace, which is not ideal when you go up against the up-tempo attack of the Redbirds. Making matters worse, they rank in the bottom 50 in EPR, meaning that even when Evansville applies pressure, that’s about it. No points, no success. Overall, I can see this game starting to get away from the Purple Aces as time goes on, and if The Birds push the pace and score, Evansville will have trouble keeping up. Having the edge in Offensive Efficiency (IS-69, EV- 318) and FT% is just icing on the cake for laying points. This one could get ugly late, and I think we are getting some real value with this line.
