The Cy Young race in the National League features some guys you’re probably familiar with. Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, and Trevor Bauer seem to be the consensus top three at the moment. However, Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes has a case as strong as anyone in the league.
Burnes ranks first in the National League in ERA (1.77), BA against (.158), strikeouts per 9 innings (13.34), and hits per 9 innings (4.99). He ranks first in FIP (1.79), second in ERA+ (257), and fifth in WHIP (0.946). By all measures, he’s been the best pitcher in the National League. However, because he has worked out of the bullpen as well as the rotation this season (11 total appearances, 8 starts), he just recently reached the qualified innings limit. He qualified for the stat leaderboards after throwing 6 scoreless innings against the Royals on Saturday.
Heading into the year, you wouldn’t have surprised many people by picking someone like deGrom or Darvish to win the award. However, picking Burnes easily would have drawn some sideways glances. He posted an ERA of 8.82 last year, in 32 appearances (only 4 starts). So how did he get from that to this?
Adding to the Arsenal
For starters, he completely ditched his 4-seam fastball. He threw that pitch over 52% of the time in 2019 and has thrown it just 2.5% this season. Burnes’ fastball was not exactly a tough pitch to hit in 2019, so ditching it was most welcome. Batters hit .425 with 13 home runs off his fastball last season. That pitch has primarily been replaced with a sinker/2-seam hybrid (defined as a sinker on Baseball Savant). According to The Athletic, the idea behind the pitch was to develop something with a similar break to his slider (Burnes’ best pitch from 2019), but with break to the opposite side of the batter.
The results of this have been drastic. Compared to those numbers off his fastball last season, batters are hitting just .238 against his sinker, with only one home run.
Burnes is throwing his new sinker nearly 35% of the time this season. However, that isn’t the only new pitch in Burnes’ arsenal. He also has a cutter that is seeing heavy usage, with movement from right to left. That is the same way his slider moves, which is on purpose. Coming out of his hand, the two pitches will look nearly identical for a long time, and then the slider will snap and break away from the hitter. This makes it extremely difficult for hitters to recognize his pitches.
The cutter has been absolutely dominant for Burnes, which can be seen with the .154 average and .200 slugging percentage that batters are sporting against the pitch this year. Last season, Burnes only had his hard stuff breaking from right to left. This year, his stuff breaks in both directions, including both his primary pitches (sinker and cutter).
Cy Young frontrunner?
For Burnes, learning the sinker was not an easy process. He told The Athletic that he had never thrown the pitch before last year when he started playing around with it during the season. However, he didn’t have time to sit down and really work on learning the pitch until this offseason, and it clearly has paid dividends.
With just a week to go in the 2020 season, Corbin Burnes appears to be the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award, by all statistical measures. With the Brewers fighting for a playoff spot, Burnes’ final performances will be make-or-break for his award opportunities. They also could be make-or-break for Milwaukee’s season, as well.
