You just can’t go too long without some drama in the National Football League. Not only is COVID ripping through the league right now, impacting a number of huge games this week, but we’ve also finally reached the end of the Urban Meyer saga in Jacksonville. Beyond the storylines, the actual games this week promise to provide some fireworks as over half the league is still alive in the playoff hunt.
Last week saw me have one of my best weeks ever picking straight up, while simultaneously having my worst week ever against the spread. If that doesn’t show you how unpredictable the NFL has been this year, I’m not sure what will.
Last Week: 11-3 Straight Up, 3-11 ATS
Running Total: 136-70-1 Straight Up, 111-96 ATS
Thursday Night: Chiefs (-3) at Chargers
We kick off Week 15 with its biggest game. Mathematically, this game isn’t for the AFC West, but it might as well be. If the Chiefs take this on the road, they’ll hold a 2 game lead on LA, while if the Chargers win, they’ve got the tiebreaker on KC with a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Both teams are likely to be without some of their most important players. Rashawn Slater is out for the Chargers, who may also be down Austin Ekeler and Derwin James. For Kansas City, Willie Gay and L’Jarius Sneed won’t go and there’s a likely chance that star Chris Jones will also be held out in Covid protocols. Games between these two are always a toss-up, I just can’t see Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid not pulling out a season split.
The Pick: Chiefs 27-24
Saturday Games:
Raiders (-1.5) at Browns
The Browns have taken one of the worst Covid hits of any team during this outbreak. Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Wyatt Teller and head coach Kevin Stefanski are all among the large number of Cleveland personnel on the list. That is a huge break for the Raiders, who have sputtered in the 2nd half of the season but still hold an outside shot at the postseason. Despite the Browns concerns, I have enough faith in Case Keenum and Nick Chubb to keep the offense afloat, and after seeing what Kansas City’s D-Line just did to Vegas, it’s hard not to see Myles Garrett making a few game-changing plays.
The Pick: Browns 23-20
Patriots at Colts (-2.5)
Another one of the week’s best games comes before Sunday. The Patriots face another huge test on the road as they try and hold on to the AFC’s top seed. Both of these teams should be well-rested coming off of late season byes. The key to this game, as is the case with most Colts games, is Jonathan Taylor. If Indy can establish him early in this game, I think they pull out a huge victory.
The Pick: Colts 28-24
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate
Panthers at Bills (-10.5)
This feels like a “Get Back on Track” game for Buffalo. I think they are much better than their record shows, and a strong end of the month can get them right back to where many thought they could be just a few months ago. This team is still talented and experienced enough to be the Wild Card team no division winner wants to see. They should roll on Sunday.
The Pick: Bills 34-20
Cardinals (-13.5) at Lions
The Cardinals couldn’t quite complete the comeback on LA Monday night. Nonetheless, this still looks like a team that will be a serious player come January. The loss of DeAndre Hopkins is a huge blow, but in the context of this week, I’m not anticipating much of a problem with Detroit.
The Pick: Cardinals 30-14
Jets at Dolphins (-10)
With a home win over the Jets, Miami can pull themselves all the way back to 500 after starting at 2-7. I’m not sure how much I buy into this group as a playoff team, but I do know that their defense has played much better football lately, and they’re finishing games with wins. I don’t think the Jets get in the way of that this week.
The Pick: Dolphins 26-19
Cowboys (-10.5) at Giants
The Micah Parsons DPOTY hype is real. It is unbelievable what the rookie from Penn St. has done in his first year in the league, and he has unquestionably been one of the biggest reasons Dallas is winning games. I’d like to see their offense get back to what they were doing earlier in the season this week. There hasn’t been a ton of consistency lately on that side of the ball, which is a problem given the amount of talent that’s there. I expect that to turn around this week.
The Pick: Cowboys 28-20
Football Team at Eagles (-7)
What a crucial time for Washington to get hit hardest with Covid. This a group in the thick of the playoff race, facing off against a division rival also in the hunt, and they have 18 guys in protocols. 5 of Washington’s 6 D-Linemen have tested positive, which means that Jalen Hurts should have a lot of time in the pocket in a game where normally the Washington line would be a serious factor. That break, plus the home game, give me reason to believe Philly steals a win in one of the week’s more important games.
The Pick: Eagles 27-22
Titans (-2) at Steelers
It’s Week 15 and I still don’t understand the Steelers. We’ve seen so many different versions of this team and so many odd results that it’s very tough to predict what they’ll do on a week-to-week basis. I don’t know that Tennessee is the top team in the AFC without Derrick Henry and AJ Brown, but they very well might end up atop the standings when the season ends. A win in Pittsburgh would go a long way towards securing that bye.
The Pick: Titans 24-21
Texans at Jaguars (-4)
Urban Meyer is gone. That’s really the only storyline in this game anyone will talk about, and it’s likely the only relevant one as well. I don’t expect many to be tuning into this one, and it’s outcome means nothing beyond draft positioning. I’ll take the Jags in their first game of a new era.
The Pick: Jaguars 26-23
Bengals at Broncos (-2.5)
Another big game as it relates to the Wild Card race, Denver and Cincy both need to get hot to end the month. The Broncos are likely looking solely at the Wild Card, while the Bengals still have a decent shot at their division. Joe Burrow almost pioneered an insane comeback against the Niners last week, I think he carries that momentum into Mile High and snags a big win for his group.
The Pick: Bengals 27-24
Falcons at 49ers (-9.5)
George Kittle is officially back. The 49ers’ TE has been a monster over the past two weeks, and it’s helped to remind us just how talented the skill position players are in San Francisco. Kittle’s return is opening more up for star WR Deebo Samuel, as well as WR Brandon Aiyuk, who is putting together a 2nd half of the year that many expected we’d see from the onset. The Falcons have been all over the place this year, which makes this spread a hard one to read. I think the Niners win, but I’m not sure it’s in blowout fashion.
The Pick: 49ers 30-23
Seahawks at Rams (-4.5)
The Rams look dangerous again. Matthew Stafford had it clicking on Monday Night and Cooper Kupp continued to do what he does as the Rams picked up a big win in Arizona. Odell landing on the Covid list hurts, as he is certainly starting to find his place in this offense, but Van Jefferson should be able to slot in just fine as WR2 while OBJ is out. The Seahawks have played better as of late, but I don’t think they’re ready for the Rams.
The Pick: Rams 31-23
Packers (-5.5) at Ravens
The Bears came out and jumped the Packers early… and then Aaron Rodgers did Aaron Rodgers things. The Green Bay QB found Davante Adams all over the field and the offense dialed it up to 11 in the second half on Sunday Night. This will be a big test for the Ravens, who have not looked the part over the past few weeks. A loss opens things up to more questions, while a win could help to solidify the notion that this is a team that can still take care of business in the AFC. I’m not entirely sold on Baltimore, and it’s hard to ignore what the Packers are doing right now.
The Pick: Packers 33-28
Sunday Night: Saints at Bucs (-10.5)
This matchup looks a little different than the last time these two met. I wrote about how Sean Payton and Saints have been the one team to have the Bucs number in the regular season, and it paid off for me when they shocked Tampa again earlier this season. I’m not sure that’ll be the case this time. New Orleans has experienced quite a dip since the last matchup, while Tampa is surging. Tom Brady is on track to win yet another MVP, and Tampa looks like a force in the NFC. I’m not sure this one will be close.
The Pick: Bucs 34-24
Monday Night: Vikings (-3.5) at Bears
The Vikings did everything in their power to try and blow a gigantic lead last week. Nonetheless, they were able to hold off Pittsburgh and now head to Chicago as the #8 team in the NFC. A strong finish should allow them to slide into that last playoff spot, but they’ll have to be nearly perfect. It’s time for Matt Nagy to go, and that process will only accelerate with more losses and a better draft pick for the next guy to work with.
The Pick: Vikings 29-24
MVP Race
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Barring a major setback, this might be in the bag. We got a vintage Brady moment last week, and he continues to reign over the league.
- Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): Rodgers certainly owns the Bears. He also owns an insane 27-4 TD-INT ratio. It’s been a wild year for Rodgers, but his play on the field is as sharp as ever.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): A stellar performance against your division leader is exactly what star QBs do. Stafford is top 3 in the league in both yards and TDs. He has been the perfect fit for LA.
- Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Bye week for Taylor last week, so we’ll see if he can keep his insane stretch up against New England this weekend.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): Mahomes is creeping back into this race. After a flurry of turnovers early in the year, he’s slowed that down and his numbers look much more normal next to the league’s other top QBs. His battle against Justin Herbert tonight will likely launch one of the two up this list.
On The Cusp: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Cooper Kupp, Josh Allen, Micah Parsons, Myles Garrett
