Happy New Year! 2022 has arrived and with it comes the home stretch of the NFL season. While Week 17 is no longer the final week of the regular season, there’s still quite a bit at stake and a lot of clinching scenarios on the table.
Some teams I’m closely watching tomorrow include Dallas, Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincy. All of these teams put together some of their finest weeks of the season, and all play very meaningful games tomorrow. No Saturday or Thursday games mean that we get a full slate of Sunday action, so enjoy the RedZone experience tomorrow!
Last Week: 10-6 Straight Up, 7-9 ATS
Running Total: 157-81-1 Straight Up, 128-110 ATS
Sunday Morning/Afternoon Slate:
Falcons at Bills (-14.5)
The Bills appear to have found their swagger again, and it makes them a very dangerous team heading into the playoffs. As long as they don’t slip up, the AFC East is theirs, and if things go their way, they could end up hosting a few playoff games. I can’t see the Falcons getting in the way of that goal. This one shouldn’t be close.
The Pick: Bills 35-17
Chiefs (-4.5) at Bengals:
There’s a lot on the line in Cincy. The Bengals can clinch the AFC North if they can take down the surging Chiefs. Kansas City can inch closer to locking up the top seed in the AFC with yet another win. Both of these teams looked the best they have all season in dominant victories last week. Something has to give, and I think that the Chiefs’ advantage in the trenches should be what helps them reel off their 9th straight W.
The Pick: Chiefs 30-24
Giants at Bears (-6.5)
The Giants put together one of the most uninspiring performances of the season last week against Philly. It’s been a disappointing season for the G-Men, and there’s no reason to believe anything changes this week. The Bears haven’t been much better, but at least their future looks a little brighter right now.
The Pick: Bears 20-13
Dolphins at Titans (-3)
When you talk about what’s at stake this week, this showdown in Nashville may be the most important game. The Dolphins are surging, but this will be their toughest test yet during their long winning streak. Tennessee needs a win plus at least 1 more Kansas City loss to secure the AFC’s top seed. That’s a huge storyline to monitor as the bye week could be the difference in the Titans getting Derrick Henry back in time for their first game or not. I like what the Dolphins are doing, and I think this can be a statement game to boost their playoff chances and stifle Ryan Tannehill.
The Pick: Dolphins 26-24
Raiders at Colts (-8)
Carson Wentz is out of Covid protocols and should be good to go for tomorrow. That’s great news for Indy, who would’ve turned to Sam Ehlinger to start their most important game of the season. The Colts look scary right now, and Jonathan Taylor continues to be the center of the offense. That should bode very well on Sunday, as the Raiders have been awful against the run this season. If they can’t slow down JT, they won’t have much of a chance.
The Pick: Colts 27-20
Jaguars at Patriots (-16.5)
The Patriots lost their grip on the AFC East, but they need to recover quickly or else the entire playoffs may be at stake. Thankfully, they have a great bounce back opportunity with the hapless Jaguars coming to town. Setting the tone in this game and getting Mac Jones comfortable again will be big.
The Pick: Patriots 30-16
Bucs (-13.5) at Jets
The Bucs responded to the noise in a big way. With many key starters out, Tampa still thrashed the Panthers and coasted to an easy victory. They should have another stress-free game with the Jets on Sunday. TB12 knows how to get his teams ready for stretch runs; he’s not letting them slip up at the Meadowlands.
The Pick: Bucs 27-10
Eagles (-4.5) at Football Team
Are the Eagles the team that no division winner wants to see on Wild Card Weekend? They may not be the best group in the NFC, but the thought of prepping for Jalen Hurts on a quick week probably isn’t ideal for a lot of D-Coordinators. Hurts has the Philly offense looking explosive, and a win over Washington would inch them closer to playoff status.
The Pick: Eagles 27-21
Rams (-6) at Ravens
This is bad timing for the Ravens. Fresh off of getting torched by Joe Burrow and his assortment of skill position players, the secondary now gets tasked with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham. It’s been a historic season for Kupp, and with Lamar Jackson’s status still up in the air, it’s hard to imagine the Ravens being able to compete for too long in this one due to the advantage Los Angeles should have in the passing game.
The Pick: Rams 33-27
Broncos at Chargers (-8)
Just when you think the Chargers have had a breakthrough, they remind you that they are in fact still the Chargers. The loss to Houston last week is inexcusable, and they need to be very careful that they don’t drop another one. They’re on the outside looking in now, but their odds are still high, especially if Tennessee takes down Miami. They need this one, and they should get it.
The Pick: Chargers 28-24
Texans at 49ers (-12.5)
For all the talk about rookie QBs this season, there hasn’t been much about the play of Davis Mills. Quietly, Mills has put together a very solid 2nd half of the year, and you could argue he’s been 2nd to Mac Jones in the entire class. Mills’ play has definitely made him worth a second look from Houston for next year, and it’s also made the Texans more competitive down the stretch. With that said, I can’t see the 49ers dropping this one. There are too many playmakers and the level of importance is too high.
The Pick: 49ers 30-20
Cardinals at Cowboys (-6)
The Cardinals continue to slip, and the matchup against Dallas isn’t an ideal one for a team trying to get out of a funk. The Cowboys played their most complete game of the season last week, and look like a team ready for the postseason. Kyler Murray is clearly missing DeAndre Hopkins, and I’m not sure he can make enough magic happen on his own to beat this Dallas group.
The Pick: Cowboys 33-28
Panthers at Saints (-6.5)
The Ian Book experience may be a short-lived one. The Saints’ rookie couldn’t get anything going against Miami and New Orleans’ playoff hopes are looking very very slim. Carolina is going back to Sam Darnold after another poor showing from Cam Newton. It’s been an underwhelming season for the Panthers, and Matt Rhule’s seat is starting to warm up. The Saints win this one to keep the faint hopes alive.
The Pick: Saints 23-20
Lions at Seahawks (-7.5)
There isn’t much to be said for this one. The Lions are better fit to lose and keep their draft position high while enjoying the progress the team is making and looking toward next year. Amon Ra St. Brown looks like he can be a legitimate #1 WR in this league, which is very encouraging for a group with few weapons on the outside. Seattle probably wants a do-over on the season. It’s been a tough year for basically everyone in the organization, and it’s been a while since the Seahawks played meaningless January football.
The Pick: Seahawks 24-19
Sunday Night: Vikings at Packers (-13)
The Packers keep finding ways to win, and they’re closing in on the NFC’s top seed. The loss of Kirk Cousins for Minnesota makes this feel like a no-brainer. The Vikings already got the Packers once this year. I can’t see Sean Mannion besting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay on primetime television.
The Pick: Packers 31-17
Monday Night: Browns (-3.5) at Steelers
Emotions will be high in Pittsburgh as Big Ben plays his final game at Heinz Field. There have been many memorable moments over Roethlisberger’s long career with the Steelers, and I think he’ll add one more tomorrow night. Cleveland is the better team, but this feels like a grand finale from one of the league’s longest tenured players.
The Pick: Steelers 20-17
MVP Race:
- Aaron Rodgers (QB- GB): Another big performance from Rodgers has him closing in on his 2nd straight MVP award. It’s still tight between him and Brady, but a strong finish should give him the edge.
- Tom Brady (QB- TB): Brady will likely lean on Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski for most of his yards as the season comes to an end. His two safety valves are some of the only healthy skill players Tampa has right now, and Brady will make sure to find them.
- Jonathan Taylor (RB- IND): Last week wasn’t JT’s biggest, but he still showed how much he means to the Colts success. What a season it’s been for the 2nd year running back.
- Matthew Stafford (QB- LAR): Stafford didn’t have his finest game last week, but he still found Cooper Kupp enough to get the job done. Expect a big game against the Ravens this week.
- Patrick Mahomes (QB- KC): Mahomes was deadly efficient against Pittsburgh. The Chiefs jumped to a huge lead so he didn’t have to do much in the 2nd half, but he made the most of the throws he did make. This was an extra impressive performance given that Travis Kelce was out and Tyreek Hill had little impact on the game.
**On the Cusp: Joe Burrow, Micah Parsons, Justin Herbert, Cooper Kupp, Dak Prescott
